The reason the Parkfield quake didn’t occur was that the strain needed to cause a quake of the expected magnitude was not there and may not be there for sometime to come if the current slippage rate continues.
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Don, does this mean you have backed off your theory that the Coalinga quake in 1983 (?) was the missing Parkfield quake?

To me that makes perfect sense and falls very close to the Parkfield due date and geographically close as well.

To me it's obvious the Coalinga quake was the missing Parkfield quake. Look for another one to hit the general area around 2005. (Roughly every 22 years, right?)

Cathryn