old stuff guys. This has been done many times. The results are never conclusive. If it worked, we'd be doing it now.

What you need is access to a good technical library and a literature search on quake prediction. There's been a LOT of studies done and none have turned up anything useful.

For the probability study you want, see Algermissen's earthquake hazard map. It's used routinely to determine risk for building projects and insurance purposes. The NEIC website may have it.

Roger