Dennis - to me the whole purpose of the board is for people to share predictions and methodology on earthquake prediction to see if we can successfully predict earthquakes. As a big side-note we have great educational posts and informational posts as well which are just as important. If for no other reason we keep the conversation that Earthquakes are predictable alive.

I think the chart is nice but maybe we aren't ready for it - maybe its not time to do any scoring at all - like you say its still in its tiny infancy. I thank Michaeal for the work he has done but maybe its not time yet.

As to the 10 mile, ridgecrest-boron scenario and the Tehachapi-Coso junction predictions - both predictions were for a relatively small quake for a specific area - the first one even mentioned the fault system - when a similar sized quake appeared over in Coso a hit was claimed for Tehachapi-Tejon and on the Ridgecrest prediction Boron got a quake. - Both of these were Martin's predictions. As I understand it he works on the foreshock theory - Based on his theory you cannot consider those foreshocks to the quake that was taken as a hit as they did not occur where predicted or where the foreshocks occurred. I think a prediction for an area the size of SoCal is a legitimate prediction if the magnitude is a larger event (4 or 5+?). I think a prediction for the entire area of the Indonesian Island chain a bit like saying we'll get a 3.0 or better in the next 2 weeks. Its all relative.

I also think maybe Michael decided to do the table due to claims by Martin (see post 5511) that he has predicted over 200 successful predictions. We are all curious to know some more facts - how many total predictions were there to get 200 successful ones? 2,000? 5,000? We've asked him several times for this info and he has not divulged it. We know Martin has something working right but if your hit ratio is 1 out of 10 then more work needs to be done to refine things.

I don't want to paint a rosy picture that we have it licked - we don't - we have some very good information, but like you said - its still in its infancy.

This board isn't really even owned by me - Susan Rosenberg still pays the domain charges - I just provide the host and the administration. Its really all of you posters that the board 'belongs' to - I just try to provide some security (thus the passwords) and a few boundaries.

Canie