An alternative point is that until a workable evaluation system is developed, all of the predictions are meaningless. Because of the way science works, it takes years before anything is accompished. To wit - Alfred Wegener and plate tectonics. He was right for the wrong reasons and it took science 50 years before they would accept it. Its the same with earthquake prediction. Because results of a methodology doesn't fit in with preconcieved notions on how something should be scored, it is considered a failure.