Hi Roger:

Not quite sure what your trying to explain.

Point 1: Allowing the predictors to state ranges in in their prediction is exactly what we are doing now, correct? We allow them to state ranges for Mag, Time, and Area. Several are unhappy with missing a window by a fraction and not getting any credit for it. it is currently a hit or miss thing. I think many would like to see a more quantitative approach. We would still be comparing predictions against background seismicity. How to you propose to alter parameters from what I'm suggesting or what we are currently doing?

Point 2: Same as above. Thats pretty much what we are doing now, although I haven't provided background seismicity yet as nobody has hit anything. How would you suggest to modify that, if at all?

Point 3: Yes, the scale would ramp up to a predicted time, then ramp back down. As I stated in my proposal, no "postdicting" would be allowed, which means that even thought potential points would ramp up prior to the quake, based on the +- time window, nothing would be considered towards hit point until after the posted time of the prediction.

How would you rework my proposal to address your concerns?

Do appreciate your input Roger!

Michael