Hi Martin,

I've been on EQ forcasting lists for over three years. Not a long time, especially in geological terms, but I have yet to see any forcaster who even comes close to your level of accuracy.

Like Don, I'd like to see you tighten up your predictions a little, but still, I consider what you've done amazing. Think of the tightening as a challenge to yourself and amaze us all.

Foreshocks (IMHO) are a completely legitimate means of predicting larger earthquakes, although I know that isn't the only method you use and forshocks only precede 7.5 percent of larger quakes. Much lower than your prediciton average.

I'm not a statistician, so I can't back this up; rather, I tend to look at the big picture, and in the big picture you are smiling from ear to ear.

You know I love you, but now I've got to play mother hen:

Cigarets have killed many, many more people than earthquakes. Do yourself and the people on this list a huge favor and quit smoking tonight, before the (real) new Millennium.

Here's how I quit smoking in July, 1975. (I was a 2-pack a dayer.)

Far too broke to afford the Schick Center, I called them, explained my situation, and asked if they had any methods I could try on my own.

This very nice man told me to put a rubber band around my wrist and snap it hard every time I had the urge for a cigaret. Yes, I was into whips and chains in no time, but it did absolutely quell my desire for a smoke. Quit cold turkey, to boot.

So give it a try and save your own life so you can go on saving others.

Happy New Year,

Cathryn