details?
Posted by John Vidale on February 22, 2006 at 21:09:19:

Necessary details

Is the Harvard magnitude the final word on size?

Does it include the ridges and fracture zones west, off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and the Wasatch fault system to the east? I'm not clear from your description what are the eastern and western limits of your area.

A public warning would be of questionable value, most earthquakes fulfilling these criteria would have a magnitude less than 6.0, and I suspect a large fraction are on the ridges and fracture zones, 100s of miles from land and people and injure no one.

Helpful details

Any idea how likely we are to get an earthquake M5.5 or bigger in this area in a month at random, and how likely you would estimate your prediction is to be fulfilled?


Follow Ups:
     ● Offer in Compromise - John - Petra  17:40:44 - 2/23/2006  (34203)  (1)
        ● Roger is good enough for me - John Vidale  22:38:51 - 2/23/2006  (34210)  (1)
           ● This isn't an M7 prediction - John Vidale  22:45:09 - 2/23/2006  (34211)  (1)
              ● Re: This isn't an M7 prediction - Petra  23:02:26 - 2/23/2006  (34213)  (1)
                 ● too complicated - John Vidale  23:15:30 - 2/23/2006  (34215)  (1)
                    ● Re: too complicated - Petra  23:48:41 - 2/23/2006  (34219)  (1)
                       ● do what you want - John Vidale  00:00:27 - 2/24/2006  (34220)  (1)
                          ● Re: do what you want - Petra  00:19:23 - 2/24/2006  (34222)  (1)
                             ● Petra, do you have reading problems - Roger Hunter  06:26:17 - 2/24/2006  (34224)  (1)
                                ● Re: Petra, do you have reading problems - marc / berkeley  07:43:05 - 2/24/2006  (34225)  (1)
                                   ● Re: Petra, do you have reading problems Yes... My Apology .... And A Volcano - Petra  18:16:59 - 2/24/2006  (34260)  (2)
                                      ● ok - John Vidale  09:14:18 - 2/25/2006  (34262)  (0)
                                      ● Re: Petra, do you have reading problems Yes... My Apology .... And A Volcano - Roger Hunter  18:42:15 - 2/24/2006  (34261)  (0)
     ● Re: details? - Petra  22:20:15 - 2/22/2006  (34149)  (2)
        ● Re: details? - Russell  22:40:52 - 2/22/2006  (34152)  (0)
        ● no details, not a specific prediction - John Vidale  22:27:30 - 2/22/2006  (34150)  (2)
           ● Re: details? - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  05:33:19 - 2/23/2006  (34163)  (1)
              ● Professional Evaluators??? - Petra  06:02:35 - 2/23/2006  (34165)  (1)
                 ● Re: Professional Evaluators??? - Russell  10:00:54 - 2/23/2006  (34170)  (1)
                    ● Re: um, I dunno about that... - marc / berkeley  12:31:21 - 2/23/2006  (34197)  (1)
                       ● Re: um, I dunno about that... - Don in Hollister  13:05:44 - 2/23/2006  (34200)  (1)
                          ● Re: um, I dunno about that... - Roger Hunter  20:47:12 - 2/23/2006  (34204)  (1)
                             ● Re: um, I dunno about that... - Don in Hollister  21:00:21 - 2/23/2006  (34205)  (0)
           ● No comment, n/t - Petra  22:34:05 - 2/22/2006  (34151)  (0)