To: gchoul@mail.otenet.gr, g.choul@egelados.gein.noa.gr
cc: gentryd@pipeline.com
Subject: How science works; twist the facts

Gerry-Makis,

In your June 6th post you wrote:

About Earthquake Prediction
Posted by Dr.G.Chouliaras on June 06, 2000 at 08:39:30:

In Reply to: About Faith & Earthquake Prediction posted by Pat In Petaluma on June 05, 2000 at 22:31:12:

Totally agree with Pat, will also do the same as her. When Shakespeare talked about " the world is a stage " he was
not giving scientific answers. I have worked in seismology in Academic institutions for 24 years and Dennis is trying to
tell me that the PDE catalog should be used to evaluate predictions that concern this region and goes on further to say
that the reason is that the PDE catalog has a higher magnitude of completeness.

In post "Dennis's (snake?) statistics - Dr.G.Chouliaras 00:26:19 6/05/2000 (3065) (3)", YOU wrote that the PDE catalog was more complete. Here is YOUR comments in that post:

Dear Dennis, why dont you look at a regional catalog at http://www.gein.noa.gr and redo your stats. It is well known
^^^^^^^^^^^^
that the PDE catalog has a larger magnitude of completeness so if you are searching for
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
M=4-5 then you should look at NOA's catalog and you will see that what i wrote is absolutely right.
Best regards

So YOU made that statement. NOT I. I took YOUR advice.

Back to the June 6th post, you continue with:

It would make sense to fan
undergraduate that if the magnitude of completeness is higher in one of two catalogs THEN that means that catalog is
INSUFFICIENT IN REPORTING EVENTS SMALLER than it's magnitude of completeness and for the Greek area
there exist a series of publications showing that NOA's catalog 1964-2000 has a magnitude of completeness down to
M (local)=2.9 which beats PDE anyday ! Just ask any seismologist!

Aren't we talking about M4's and not M2's? I would expect the PDE to be just as complete as the NOA for that level of event and my experiment with the 1990 data proved this to be a correct assumption.

Continuing with your June 6th post, you continue with:

But the problem is that Dennis tried to trick us by trying to
compare catalogs with different magnitudes M local (NOA) and Mw or Ms (PDE). A fairer test would be to convert to
similar magnitudes when conducting such tests. Nevertheless Greece has a magnitude M local=4 every couple of days
so when i hear a M=4 for Greeece in June, as Posted by Dennis's "friend" Antonio Romino, i had to post a SCIENTIFIC
point.

Tried to trick us? By using the PDE which uses multiple magnitudes, it gave you the BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT by increasing the number of M4 events that were not being recorded as M4 by the NOA. By increasing the number of M4 events, it decreases the number of days that didn't have M4 events. But I have corrected that below using your PRECIOUS NOA DATA.

You made the statement that M4 events happen every day (but I see that you changed now to every couple of days). Using the NOA data, your statement is full of crap. For you, as a scientist, to make that kind of sweeping statement really shows your true colors as one who is in the camp of doing everything they can to refute earthquake prediction.

Looking at the NOA 1964-2000 catalog for the first 4 months of 1990 M4 - M5 events, I find the following dates WITHOUT an M4+ event:

1/1, 1/3 - 1/5, 1/7, 1/9, 1/11 - 1/12, 1/15 - 1/16, 1/18 - 1/19, 1/21 - 1/23, 1/30, 2/1 - 2/3, 2/5 - 2/7, 2/9 - 2/11, 2/13 - 2/17, 2/22, 2/24, 2/26 - 3/1, 3/3 - 3/6, 3/8 - 3/13, 3/16 - 3/21, 3/23 - 3/30, 4/1 - 4/8, 4/11 - 4/13, 4/15 - 4/19, 4/21, 4/23 - 4/25, 4/27 - 4/29.

So 83 out of 120 days DID NOT have an M4+ event or about 69% of the time. So if this sampling holds true for a longer period of time, the every 2 days doesn't hold water either.

The detail list for the first 4 months of 1990 are:

1990 JAN 2 20 35 43.1 38.58 24.26 14 4.5
1990 JAN 6 21 42 7.3 34.83 26.34 1 4.1
1990 JAN 8 10 28 45.0 36.12 27.11 7 4.1
1990 JAN 8 20 32 2.4 36.07 27.14 25 4.0
1990 JAN 10 05 38 24.3 36.17 27.08 1 4.5
1990 JAN 13 05 05 58.3 36.20 27.15 2 4.7
1990 JAN 13 05 19 1.2 36.11 27.23 7 4.0
1990 JAN 13 07 43 48.4 36.14 27.23 11 4.0
1990 JAN 13 10 22 14.0 36.16 27.24 1 4.0
1990 JAN 13 10 26 29.6 36.14 27.12 11 4.0
1990 JAN 13 14 03 16.8 36.08 27.18 20 4.0
1990 JAN 13 20 56 57.4 36.18 27.11 1 4.0
1990 JAN 13 22 48 8.4 36.13 27.18 1 4.1
1990 JAN 13 23 08 28.7 35.99 27.25 11 4.1
1990 JAN 14 01 38 49.1 36.16 27.09 1 4.0
1990 JAN 14 02 29 23.5 36.18 27.13 10 4.1
1990 JAN 14 02 32 14.3 36.12 27.18 3 4.0
1990 JAN 14 03 09 43.1 36.14 27.25 18 4.0
1990 JAN 14 07 27 59.9 36.08 27.17 16 4.0
1990 JAN 14 08 22 5.1 36.05 27.28 13 4.0
1990 JAN 14 17 08 40.1 35.42 26.13 10 4.5
1990 JAN 14 21 25 53.5 36.02 27.32 12 4.1
1990 JAN 17 07 52 50.4 36.16 27.16 4 4.3
1990 JAN 17 11 23 31.7 37.56 21.11 1 4.0
1990 JAN 20 11 55 48.8 36.12 27.24 9 4.0
1990 JAN 20 19 16 16.7 35.01 26.16 1 4.0
1990 JAN 24 13 17 50.4 35.88 26.15 84 4.1
1990 JAN 25 13 07 8.7 35.95 27.43 68 4.2
1990 JAN 25 20 29 49.0 36.01 27.26 39 4.1
1990 JAN 26 01 43 18.9 35.32 27.06 1 4.1
1990 JAN 26 09 40 15.7 35.87 27.37 46 4.3
1990 JAN 27 19 52 40.1 38.58 23.63 10 4.0
1990 JAN 28 17 51 33.2 36.00 27.32 23 4.0
1990 JAN 29 13 01 45.8 39.98 23.94 11 4.1
1990 JAN 31 10 16 15.2 41.41 22.72 9 4.2
1990 FEB 4 02 30 39.8 37.35 20.89 18 4.3
1990 FEB 8 07 47 30.6 39.15 23.59 1 4.0
1990 FEB 12 15 42 7.3 36.22 27.13 1 4.2
1990 FEB 18 12 34 26.0 36.24 27.13 1 4.1
1990 FEB 19 05 43 44.8 36.23 27.15 1 4.2
1990 FEB 19 20 56 38.6 36.25 27.14 2 4.2
1990 FEB 19 21 07 44.5 36.26 27.13 2 4.6
1990 FEB 19 21 45 50.9 36.17 27.19 6 4.0
1990 FEB 20 08 43 12.1 36.25 27.15 1 4.3
1990 FEB 21 00 24 44.6 36.20 27.16 5 4.3
1990 FEB 23 22 59 14.0 34.38 25.20 81 4.4
1990 FEB 23 23 55 27.1 36.25 27.13 7 4.0
1990 FEB 25 02 49 51.4 34.96 26.20 21 4.0
1990 MAR 2 18 08 35.5 39.06 23.76 14 4.3
1990 MAR 7 23 14 30.1 41.26 19.97 35 4.2
1990 MAR 13 12 04 53.1 39.91 22.38 1 4.0
1990 MAR 13 23 55 2.3 39.26 25.49 29 4.1
1990 MAR 14 19 21 49.2 36.17 27.21 3 4.1
1990 MAR 15 02 28 58.7 35.46 27.06 14 4.3
1990 MAR 22 15 09 38.7 35.01 26.70 1 4.0
1990 MAR 31 01 38 17.4 39.98 24.00 11 4.4
1990 MAR 31 01 39 54.2 40.04 23.90 1 4.1
1990 APR 9 04 56 39.5 38.85 21.92 1 4.0
1990 APR 10 03 19 16.9 38.17 20.44 8 4.0
1990 APR 14 09 40 37.2 36.19 27.13 1 4.6
1990 APR 14 22 29 13.1 34.96 26.36 3 4.2
1990 APR 20 07 01 25.1 36.17 27.15 35 4.1
1990 APR 22 16 35 44.8 36.61 26.93 140 4.2
1990 APR 26 11 27 43.8 40.94 19.77 31 4.6
1990 APR 30 20 58 44.6 39.12 26.33 10 4.1

I've got your number (which means, I know what you really stand for and what your real purpose is),

Dennis