Roger: "I'd say his chances of a hit are pretty good and pretty meaningless."

See, Roger, we agree about the important things in life! We might be a good example for others to follow.

BTW another "unknown" in Shan's prediction is

"The impact may also felt otherwise in the following region due to the high
magnitude of the quake in the following locations or vice-versa.
XIZANG (31.1N 81.1E) - XIZANG (31.9N 93.1E)
LUZON, PHILIPPINE(14.9N 123.1E)"

His English is unclear and we cannot tell what he means by "the impact." But likely he means the impact of the forces he is supposedly measuring by sun shadow, and he is in effect adding two more giant rectangles to the prediction, claiming that the seismicity in one (say, Japan) is mutually conditioned upon the others.

Have fun evaluating THAT, Roger!

A sympathetic gullible person might muse: Oh, Shan has used his Super-Secret Sun-Shadow Calculations and come up with 3 mathematical solutions, not just one. So of course the seismicity in each area is inter-related. Brilliant!

An irritated skeptic might muse: Oh, Shan is really out to get Roger now. And isn't it sly the way he has in effect expanded the magnitude range of all his predictions? Now he can say that a 5M in Japan is a hit because what happened in Tibet prevented it from being a 6M. Clever!