"Put in an area, date and size range, get back an estimate of probability."

I mean that you get back how many relevant quakes have occurred there in the past -- an assessment of the area. That is not an indicator of future probability that is relevant to the prediction.

"that's exactly what I meant by instant evaluation"

The difference is that I said it will give predictors an assessment of the area, using historical information. I did not say it will provide any assessemnt or judgement of their prediction. Anyway, Michael and you can talk about the issue if you want, I'm not interested in it that much any more.