Hi All. Over the past year I have plotted 22 probabilities for quakes in the northeast section of California. During that time I have only gotten 2 quakes that met all of the parameters of date, location and magnitude.

Some of the others in my judgment were to far removed in time, or to far outside the radius used to be of any use. Still there were some quakes that were clearly the results of the data used, but that the data used wasn’t accurate enough.

Had the plots been made for southern California my number of correct hits would have been greater simply because there are more quakes in southern California then in northeast California.

A test I always use when a person makes a prediction is to see how many predictions they have made and the areas they make the predictions for. It doesn’t take very long to see what they are doing. Most of them make predictions for areas that have a lot of quakes. If they make 2 or 3 predictions a month, every month, sooner or later they are going to be correct. A good example of this is to make a prediction for an M=6.0 quake or larger every 6 days. Say this quake is going to occur somewhere in the World and you will be correct almost every time. There are on the average 13 quakes per month above M=6.0. That is a quake about every 2.5 days. Of course M=6.0+ quakes don’t occur every 2.5 days, but you can always say that the biggest one that occurred obscured the precursors you use of the ones you didn’t predict. It’s just playing the odds.

Rodger, a few others and I are aware of this. This is one of the reasons I stay away from areas that have a lot of quakes although I will admit that there are times I can’t resist a sure thing and I like to pull some peoples chains. Don’t do that to very often as it can backfire on you. Take Care…Don in creepy town