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Don's predictions |
Don; If you recall our earlier go-around I said I had no way to tell how well you were doing. Someone who goes by the name of NetSurfr came up with a way of doing it with a Monte Carlo method. It involves making 226 random predictions, counting the number of times the random hits were better than your hits and plotting the results after 10,000 repetitions. The final result is a normal distribution with a peak at 21 hits aand a maximum of 40 hits. Since you got 33 hits, you're doing significantly better than chance. Whatever you're doing, keep it up! And thanks to NS for pounding on me until the method soaked in. Roger Follow Ups: ● Monte Carlo Method - Ara 21:19:34 - 10/26/2005 (29843) (1) ● Re: Monte Carlo Method - Roger Hunter 22:40:53 - 10/26/2005 (29844) (1) ● The Monte Carlo Sidelines - Ara 23:15:20 - 10/26/2005 (29845) (0) ● Re: Don's predictions - chris in suburbia 07:50:57 - 10/26/2005 (29837) (1) ● Re: Don's predictions - Roger Hunter 12:11:15 - 10/26/2005 (29840) (2) ● Don's predictions & Roger's evaluations & Chris's comments - Ara 04:49:03 - 10/28/2005 (29854) (2) ● Re: Don's predictions & Roger's evaluations & Chris's comments - Don in Hollister 10:36:21 - 10/28/2005 (29861) (3) ● keep predicting - chris in suburbia 04:44:04 - 10/30/2005 (29907) (0) ● I am pro-prediction, not anti-prediction - Ara 22:45:50 - 10/28/2005 (29896) (0) ● Re: Don's predictions & Roger's evaluations & Chris's comments - Cathryn 13:11:31 - 10/28/2005 (29882) (0) ● a stab at the meaning - John Vidale 07:12:21 - 10/28/2005 (29855) (2) ● Re: a stab at the meaning - Roger Hunter 08:38:35 - 10/28/2005 (29859) (2) ● step down? - John Vidale 18:19:33 - 10/28/2005 (29892) (1) ● Re: step down? - Roger Hunter 18:27:53 - 10/28/2005 (29893) (1) ● not really - John Vidale 21:19:49 - 10/28/2005 (29895) (1) ● Very good John - Roger Hunter 05:38:32 - 10/29/2005 (29900) (1) ● have to see how busy it gets - John Vidale 14:21:37 - 10/29/2005 (29904) (1) ● Re: have to see how busy it gets - Cathryn 13:18:02 - 10/30/2005 (29919) (1) ● thanks - John Vidale 17:05:06 - 10/30/2005 (29923) (0) ● aren't we saying the same thing? - John Vidale 13:31:09 - 10/28/2005 (29884) (1) ● Re: aren't we saying the same thing? - Roger Hunter 14:05:07 - 10/28/2005 (29886) (0) ● Stabs at meanings - Ara 07:38:43 - 10/28/2005 (29856) (1) ● pretty much - John Vidale 13:35:23 - 10/28/2005 (29885) (0) ● Re: Don's predictions - Don in Hollister 12:15:07 - 10/26/2005 (29841) (1) ● Re: Don's predictions - Petra 19:55:40 - 10/26/2005 (29842) (2) ● Re: Don's predictions - marc / berkeley 08:10:21 - 10/28/2005 (29857) (1) ● Marc's underwater science - chris in suburbia 04:54:10 - 10/30/2005 (29908) (0) ● Re: Don's predictions - Todd 17:26:40 - 10/27/2005 (29846) (1) ● Re: Don's predictions - Petra 18:01:14 - 10/27/2005 (29847) (3) ● Re: Don's predictions - marc / berkeley 08:31:52 - 10/28/2005 (29858) (1) ● You're Right Marc - Petra 14:18:17 - 10/28/2005 (29887) (0) ● Re: Don's predictions - Todd 23:02:35 - 10/27/2005 (29849) (1) ● The RCF - Petra 01:24:17 - 10/28/2005 (29850) (1) ● Re: The RCF - Don in Hollister 03:53:42 - 10/28/2005 (29853) (0) ● Re: Don's predictions - Don in Hollister 20:26:22 - 10/27/2005 (29848) (0) |
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