Don's predictions
Posted by Roger Hunter on October 25, 2005 at 17:53:26:

Don;

If you recall our earlier go-around I said I had no way to tell how well you were doing.

Someone who goes by the name of NetSurfr came up with a way of doing it with a Monte Carlo method. It involves making 226 random predictions, counting the number of times the random hits were better than your hits and plotting the results after 10,000 repetitions.

The final result is a normal distribution with a peak at 21 hits aand a maximum of 40 hits. Since you got 33 hits, you're doing significantly better than chance.

Whatever you're doing, keep it up!

And thanks to NS for pounding on me until the method soaked in.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Monte Carlo Method - Ara  21:19:34 - 10/26/2005  (29843)  (1)
        ● Re: Monte Carlo Method - Roger Hunter  22:40:53 - 10/26/2005  (29844)  (1)
           ● The Monte Carlo Sidelines - Ara  23:15:20 - 10/26/2005  (29845)  (0)
     ● Re: Don's predictions - chris in suburbia  07:50:57 - 10/26/2005  (29837)  (1)
        ● Re: Don's predictions - Roger Hunter  12:11:15 - 10/26/2005  (29840)  (2)
           ● Don's predictions & Roger's evaluations & Chris's comments - Ara  04:49:03 - 10/28/2005  (29854)  (2)
              ● Re: Don's predictions & Roger's evaluations & Chris's comments - Don in Hollister  10:36:21 - 10/28/2005  (29861)  (3)
                 ● keep predicting - chris in suburbia  04:44:04 - 10/30/2005  (29907)  (0)
                 ● I am pro-prediction, not anti-prediction - Ara  22:45:50 - 10/28/2005  (29896)  (0)
                 ● Re: Don's predictions & Roger's evaluations & Chris's comments - Cathryn  13:11:31 - 10/28/2005  (29882)  (0)
              ● a stab at the meaning - John Vidale  07:12:21 - 10/28/2005  (29855)  (2)
                 ● Re: a stab at the meaning - Roger Hunter  08:38:35 - 10/28/2005  (29859)  (2)
                    ● step down? - John Vidale  18:19:33 - 10/28/2005  (29892)  (1)
                       ● Re: step down? - Roger Hunter  18:27:53 - 10/28/2005  (29893)  (1)
                          ● not really - John Vidale  21:19:49 - 10/28/2005  (29895)  (1)
                             ● Very good John - Roger Hunter  05:38:32 - 10/29/2005  (29900)  (1)
                                ● have to see how busy it gets - John Vidale  14:21:37 - 10/29/2005  (29904)  (1)
                                   ● Re: have to see how busy it gets - Cathryn  13:18:02 - 10/30/2005  (29919)  (1)
                                      ● thanks - John Vidale  17:05:06 - 10/30/2005  (29923)  (0)
                    ● aren't we saying the same thing? - John Vidale  13:31:09 - 10/28/2005  (29884)  (1)
                       ● Re: aren't we saying the same thing? - Roger Hunter  14:05:07 - 10/28/2005  (29886)  (0)
                 ● Stabs at meanings - Ara  07:38:43 - 10/28/2005  (29856)  (1)
                    ● pretty much - John Vidale  13:35:23 - 10/28/2005  (29885)  (0)
           ● Re: Don's predictions - Don in Hollister  12:15:07 - 10/26/2005  (29841)  (1)
              ● Re: Don's predictions - Petra  19:55:40 - 10/26/2005  (29842)  (2)
                 ● Re: Don's predictions - marc / berkeley  08:10:21 - 10/28/2005  (29857)  (1)
                    ● Marc's underwater science - chris in suburbia  04:54:10 - 10/30/2005  (29908)  (0)
                 ● Re: Don's predictions - Todd  17:26:40 - 10/27/2005  (29846)  (1)
                    ● Re: Don's predictions - Petra  18:01:14 - 10/27/2005  (29847)  (3)
                       ● Re: Don's predictions - marc / berkeley  08:31:52 - 10/28/2005  (29858)  (1)
                          ● You're Right Marc - Petra  14:18:17 - 10/28/2005  (29887)  (0)
                       ● Re: Don's predictions - Todd  23:02:35 - 10/27/2005  (29849)  (1)
                          ● The RCF - Petra  01:24:17 - 10/28/2005  (29850)  (1)
                             ● Re: The RCF - Don in Hollister  03:53:42 - 10/28/2005  (29853)  (0)
                       ● Re: Don's predictions - Don in Hollister  20:26:22 - 10/27/2005  (29848)  (0)