Roger,

"No, you're not getting it right. I made 10,000 repetitions of 226 random numbers, comparing them to Don's probabilities and counting the number of times the random number was smaller than Don's. Those counts made up a histogram and the largest number was 40 Don's 33 is 3 sigmas from center."

Wow, I was even more way off than I thought. Now I am lost, which is OK. Can't even think of a next question to ask. Sort of like how I feel while watching cricket or rugby.