The NHC has shifted their preferred track north to near Galveston....but the error cone covers much of western Louisiana. 25% of the US Oil refineries are from Houston east into western Louisiana. Of interest are the probabilities...a 22% chance that the center of Rita will pass within 65 nautical miles of Galveston by 1 AM local Sunday....but a 13% chance that it will pass within 65 N.M. of New Orleans. I think 65 N.M. west of New Orleans as a cat 4 or 5 would re-flood it. So...good the mayor stopped the repopulation for now. Pres Bush was on TV a couple days ago saying that 3 inches of rain would make the levees fail. No! this guy really does not have a clue. You should all read the Newsweek of Sept 19. 3" of rain would cause flooding because the pumping stations are not at 100%...because the rain would fall inside an area below sea level. It is a storm surge that could make the levees fail. Just like Brown was replaced...they should just have president Bush stay out of this...he could be replaced by his brother...who may be scary himself, but at least seems competent.
Chris

• 5 AM Thurs eastern probabilities