That's a good question... One I don't really have an answer to.

Then there is the saying: Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Predicting earthquakes is a difficult (some say impossible) thing - Geologic time and human time are so widely different.

I don't like to see predictions like: a 3 magnitude quake in southern california in the next 2 weeks - this is because that sort of a prediction will ALWAYS be true. Or likewise,: Indonesia will experience a 5+ mag quake in the next 10 days - this also is Always true - or... Hokkaido will experience a 4+ quake in the next week - which right now is a pretty good bet with a volcano blowing.

I guess I'm happy if its close. Within a few days - at least the specified magnitude +- .5 and within 50-100 miles or so ?

If someone predicts a mag 5 quake and a 2 comes thru - that's off, but if a 6 comes thru, then I'd consider that good.

Some predictions are a bit nebulous - Its difficult to state an exact location in a spot like southern cal - we've so many faults that any one of them could relieve strain buildup from tectonic plate movement. You may know something is coming, but will it be out in the desert like Hector or will it cause our mountains to rise like Northridge quake ? Or will it hit a coastal fault?

We've got this monster fault 'stuck' in our back yards ! We all know its just a matter of time...

Canie