Hi All,

Brian Hackney was at his best in presenting this latest TV documentary. He was in good company as David Scwartz, Alan Lindh, Lucy Jones, Ross Stein and Tim Hall of Geomatrix joined forces to provide an in-depth view of where we were in 1906 and where we are headed in 2004.

As the program began they started at the Golden Gate Bridge and the Marin Headlands and included some great film footage of a place Don and I know like an old friend and the place we once introduced to Roger Musson. It's where walls and walls of radiolarian chert display what once was on the ocean floor is now above, twisted, torn and turned upright.

From there they headed north to another favorite place of mine, the Earthquake Trail in Olema. In this place there was 16 feet of displacement in two seconds time during the 1906 earthquake. And just 21 miles east lies the city where I live now, Santa Rosa that suffered major damage and 300 fatalities. Sitting on alluvium soil makes everything shake intensely.

Then the focus shifted to earthquake prediction and Parkfield. David Schwartz reiterated that there were no signs at all that the Parkfield quake was going to occur. They asked Lucy Jones if she thought it would be possible at some time in the future for a 7.0 quake to be predicted a week in advance and she said, "no." However, when asking Alan Lindh, he said, "yes." He said its possible that some new piece of information could be secured which would make it possible, such as in the case where finding the Rosetta Stone opened the door to understanding Egyptian Hieroglyphs. And this segment would not have been complete without a trip to Parkfield to view various instruments and they included some film footage of the trees shaking on the SAF during the 6.0 quake.

And now for the most important segment of the show. Where is the next Bay Area 7.0 earthquake most likely to occur? In my backyard, on the Rodgers Creek Fault. To some this seems remote, but its influence on the Bay Area is powerful. A break in Santa Rosa would cause damage in the East Bay and San Francisco and could trigger the Hayward Fault and would last for 30 seconds. But if it breaks in the middle of San Pablo Bay both the Rodgers Creek and the Hayward Fault could go at the same time. This scenario tells them a 7.4 is possible.

The method of calculating the build up of stress was by using butterfly pattern modeling, just as they did in Landers which led them to believe Hector Mine was in the stress shadow. Santa Rosa and this general area are in the red zone today. The last 7.0 quake occurred 250 years ago causing 40 feet of rupture. Historically the average is between 100 and 250 years between 7.0 quakes. According to Schwartz, we may have 2 to 3 years until the 7.0 arrives, but we don't have 15 years. It's ready to go at any time.

I'm not positive I'm really ready for a 7.0, but I may find out soon.

Petra