March 10,

Hello Petra and Roger...Roger may not agree, but the "4.5 +" seems OK to do to me....that you don't have to put a high end on the prediction. On the other hand...by coincidence I was thinking I could try and establish a prediction record just looking at where there have been recurring earthquakes the last week or so and predicting there (I got the first M7+ quake 4 hourt before by doing that in Petra's contest. If the predictions were evaulated with long-term rates, then you would appear to have a successful prediction record (this does not apply, I think, to Petra's 2 big hits of 2004...which were in areas not that active...). There has been a big swarm in that area of offshore Oregon and I would be a little surprised if Petra does not get a hit there. And, Parkfield aftershock are in the range for the prediction before (I think), although they may have generally died down so that 3.5+ is not that common. So, Roger...you say you decluster or something like that in evaluations....how does that work for something like the offshore Oregon swarm?
other...bit of a scattering of small quakes (up to M 3.0) just south of the Border....am I imagining it, or has this area been turning itself on and off for the last few months? (I don't really want to look through a list of quakes on this one....).
Chris