So I was thinking tonight about all the times in the last 3 years southern california has had a minor to moderate earthquake and Caltech's response to the media when these events happen. The #1 question of course is, "is there a bigger on the way?" and of course Caltech side steps and never gives a good answer (they probably really don't know). But one thing that I think is interesting is they give a statistic out. I've noticed Lucy Jones and Kate Hutchinson (the older woman, I think I have name right) will often say, "Well it's been about 3 hours since the main quake, so odds are down to like 1 and 20 that a bigger one will follow and by tomorrow morning less than that". HOWEVER, looking back just on personal experience, this has not been the case. I.E. Loma Prieta was proceeded by a year of 2 5+ quakes. Landers saw a 2 month window w/ a foreshock in April. I remember a 6+ quake near Bishop in the 80s being proceeded by 24 hours by a magnitude 5 quake-and it seems up on the north coast they have had magnitude 6+ events proceeded by smallers ones months before.

So the question I pose, do we need a revised statistic system? Which major quakes in the last century WERE indeed proceeded by smaller felt events by hours that arms Caltech w/ that statistic. Wasn't 06, not Northridge, or 71 Sylmar quake, 1933 Long Beach apparently had several foreshocks but over course of year ( or so I read)...I also wonder if there were to be a 5.5 quake on Rodger's Creek fault, would the USGS really give that statistic to the media? Or would they maybe say they just don't know and the possibilty exists that a major one might hit w/ in a year now.

The clearest example of this that I remember was when that 4.2 quake hit West HOllywood. It occured at like 4:59pm and by the 6:30 newscast Kate was saying that within the hour and 1/2 the chances of a bigger one had gone done significantly. However I remember for the next 3 months after that, there were little tremors (a few over 3) from West Hollywood to Compton to Long Beach. There was a noticable INCREASE. Also, the Newport Inglewood fault is very hidden and they were never sure what segment if on that fault at all that 4.2 event was on. IMO, nobody really knew what was going on after that 4.2 yet they will tell the media some rather reassuring statistics. It kind of flies in the face of prepardness.