Posted by Don in Hollister on August 29, 2004 at 06:58:52:
Hi Todd. You have some thought provoking questions there. Using a center of 33.849N/116.796W (15 miles west of Palm Springs) and a radius of 200 miles I found some interesting quake patterns. The first set of quakes are all quakes M>6.0 and larger that occurred inside that 200-mile radius. I used only the quakes that were larger then M>7.0 for the short lists (one year, or there about) except for the quake that occurred in 1992. The events leading up to that quake were different then the events prior to the other quakes. As you can see there are some differences in the number of quakes leading to the main event. Enough so in my opinion that what might be true for one area may not be true for another area. What was seen for one quake may not be seen for another quake. Something I learned about statistics a long time is that they mean only what the person with the statistics wants them to mean. Take Care…Don in creepy town catalog=ANSS start_time=1898/01/01,00:00:00 end_time=2004/08/29,12:52:11 minimum_magnitude=6.0 maximum_magnitude=10 event_type=E delta=0 km to 320 km from (33.849,-116.796) Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1933/03/11 01:54:07.80 33.6167 -117.9667 0.00 6.40 ML 0 0.00 CI š 1934/12/30 13:52:00.00 32.2500 -115.5000 0.00 6.50 ML 0 0.00 CI š 1934/12/31 18:45:00.00 32.0000 -114.7500 0.00 7.10 ML 0 0.00 CI š 1935/02/24 01:45:00.00 31.9833 -115.2000 0.00 6.00 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1937/03/25 16:49:01.83 33.4085 -116.2615 10.00 6.00 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1940/05/19 04:36:40.90 32.7333 -115.5000 0.00 6.70 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1940/12/07 22:16:27.00 31.6667 -115.0833 0.00 6.00 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1942/10/21 16:22:13.00 32.9667 -116.0000 0.00 6.60 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1946/03/15 13:49:35.90 35.7252 -118.0547 22.00 6.00 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1947/04/10 15:58:06.00 34.9833 -116.5500 0.00 6.50 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1948/12/04 23:43:17.00 33.9333 -116.3833 0.00 6.00 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1952/07/21 11:52:14.00 35.0000 -119.0167 0.00 7.50 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1952/07/21 12:05:31.00 35.0000 -119.0000 0.00 6.40 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1952/07/23 00:38:32.00 35.3667 -118.5833 0.00 6.10 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1952/07/29 07:03:47.00 35.3833 -118.8500 0.00 6.10 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1954/03/19 09:54:29.00 33.2833 -116.1833 0.00 6.40 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1954/10/24 09:44:08.00 31.5000 -116.0000 0.00 6.00 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1954/11/12 12:26:47.00 31.5000 -116.0000 0.00 6.30 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1956/02/09 14:32:38.00 31.7500 -115.9167 0.00 6.80 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1956/02/09 15:24:26.00 31.7500 -115.9167 0.00 6.10 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1956/02/14 18:33:34.00 31.5000 -115.5000 0.00 6.30 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1956/02/15 01:20:38.00 31.5000 -115.5000 0.00 6.40 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1966/08/07 17:36:26.70 31.8000 -114.5000 0.00 6.30 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1968/04/09 02:28:59.06 33.1900 -116.1287 11.10 6.50 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1971/02/09 14:00:41.83 34.4112 -118.4007 8.40 6.60 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1979/10/15 23:16:53.44 32.6137 -115.3182 12.28 6.40 Mc 0 0.00 CI 0 1980/06/09 03:28:19.37 32.1853 -115.0758 5.00 6.10 Mc 0 0.00 CI 0 1987/11/24 01:54:14.66 33.0900 -115.7925 10.81 6.20 Mc 46 0.32 CI 134894 1987/11/24 13:15:56.71 33.0145 -115.8517 11.18 6.60 Mc 71 0.39 CI 628016 1992/04/23 04:50:23.22 33.9612 -116.3175 12.38 6.10 Mc 151 0.27 CI 3019681 1992/06/28 11:57:34.13 34.2002 -116.4367 0.97 7.30 Mc 109 0.19 CI 3031111 1992/06/28 15:05:30.72 34.2033 -116.8268 5.21 6.40 Mc 37 0.22 CI 3031425 1994/01/17 12:30:55.39 34.2130 -118.5370 18.39 6.60 Mw 195 0.31 CI 3144585 1999/10/16 09:46:44.13 34.5940 -116.2710 0.02 7.10 Mw 55 0.16 CI 9108652 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1933/10/14 20:03:23.00 32.0000 -115.0000 0.00 3.70 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1934/04/02 07:01:00.00 32.0000 -115.0000 0.00 3.50 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1934/04/03 17:53:00.00 32.0000 -115.0000 0.00 4.00 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1934/04/21 01:20:00.00 32.0000 -115.0000 0.00 3.50 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1934/07/17 11:38:00.00 32.0000 -115.0000 0.00 4.00 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1934/12/31 18:45:00.00 32.0000 -114.7500 0.00 7.10 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1951/11/17 04:20:28.00 34.9167 -119.0333 0.00 3.40 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1951/12/15 05:41:59.00 35.2500 -119.1167 0.00 3.40 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1951/12/28 08:23:57.00 34.9667 -118.6333 0.00 3.10 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1952/03/15 06:44:47.00 34.8167 -119.0667 0.00 3.00 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1952/07/21 09:43:03.00 35.0000 -119.0833 0.00 3.10 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1952/07/21 11:52:14.00 35.0000 -119.0167 0.00 7.50 ML 0 0.00 CI 0 1986/02/17 02:12:33.48 34.1157 -116.0298 11.28 4.00 Mc 72 0.36 CI 116008 1986/07/08 09:20:44.56 33.9992 -116.6085 10.35 5.60 Mc 162 0.09 CI 700917 1986/07/08 09:24:12.79 34.0317 -116.6542 9.12 4.40 Mc 13 0.04 CI 700919 1986/07/08 09:28:13.75 33.9503 -116.5328 17.77 4.00 Mc 11 0.20 CI 127338 1986/07/08 10:09:02.90 33.9772 -116.5790 8.07 4.40 Mc 113 0.10 CI 700934 1986/07/08 10:11:00.17 34.0228 -116.6697 3.92 4.10 Mc 56 0.15 CI 700935 1986/07/08 10:22:39.43 34.0282 -116.6267 10.91 4.40 Mc 27 0.08 CI 748481 1986/07/08 19:36:20.08 34.0163 -116.6145 11.68 4.00 Mc 90 0.09 CI 701105 1986/07/09 00:12:32.14 33.9758 -116.5673 8.70 4.20 Mc 113 0.10 CI 701181 1986/07/12 05:45:27.51 33.9857 -116.6520 6.63 4.00 Mc 103 0.13 CI 701985 1986/07/17 20:35:14.97 33.9890 -116.6473 6.65 4.60 Mc 112 0.10 CI 702983 1986/07/17 21:54:45.14 33.9930 -116.6473 7.26 4.40 Mc 145 0.11 CI 702997 1986/08/29 07:46:54.48 33.9545 -116.5985 5.33 4.00 Mc 89 0.09 CI 606616 1986/10/15 02:28:47.76 33.9482 -116.5768 6.58 4.10 Mc 80 0.09 CI 710934 1988/12/16 05:53:05.00 33.9788 -116.6813 8.12 4.90 Mc 169 0.11 CI 651401 1992/04/23 02:25:29.87 33.9562 -116.3175 11.53 4.60 Mc 121 0.23 CI 2047709 1992/04/23 04:50:23.22 33.9612 -116.3175 12.38 6.10 Mc 151 0.27 CI 3019681 1992/04/23 05:10:10.39 34.0098 -116.3242 3.04 4.30 Mc 112 0.25 CI 2047719 1992/04/23 05:10:28.09 33.9577 -116.3297 3.18 4.40 Mc 32 0.17 CI 3027826 1992/04/23 11:32:33.22 33.9710 -116.3217 0.84 4.00 Mc 16 0.19 CI 3122460 1992/04/24 12:36:05.74 33.9460 -116.3790 10.00 4.20 Mb 28 0.94 NEI 199204244040 1992/05/02 12:46:41.42 33.9893 -116.2868 3.97 4.10 Mc 85 0.20 CI 2050243 1992/05/04 01:16:02.56 33.9393 -116.3408 5.80 4.10 Mc 96 0.21 CI 2050538 1992/05/04 16:19:49.72 33.9412 -116.3042 12.41 4.80 Mc 105 0.22 CI 2050647 1992/05/06 02:38:43.35 33.9427 -116.3145 6.85 4.70 Mc 124 0.23 CI 2050937 1992/05/12 02:31:11.01 33.9815 -116.2597 6.65 4.50 Mc 96 0.22 CI 2051863 1992/05/12 02:31:27.94 33.9795 -116.2592 0.21 4.40 Mc 23 0.28 CI 3024922 1992/05/12 02:32:52.54 33.9848 -116.2582 4.89 4.00 Mc 54 0.22 CI 3024923 1992/05/18 15:44:17.97 33.9510 -116.3375 6.57 5.00 Mc 137 0.25 CI 2052730 1992/06/11 00:24:19.18 34.1743 -116.3498 0.79 4.40 Mc 100 0.19 CI 2055346 1992/06/28 11:57:34.13 34.2002 -116.4367 0.97 7.30 Mc 109 0.19 CI 3031111 1998/07/04 11:15:48.32 34.6360 -116.6870 1.10 3.71 ML 88 0.22 CI 9059472 1999/04/16 15:53:51.58 34.4840 -116.5110 3.31 3.15 ML 83 0.20 CI 9083778 1999/08/18 07:50:05.64 34.3960 -116.4690 4.02 3.09 ML 84 0.15 CI 9101425 1999/10/16 02:41:04.69 34.5940 -116.2700 0.01 3.70 ML 75 0.18 CI 9108606 1999/10/16 09:46:44.13 34.5940 -116.2710 0.02 7.10 Mw 55 0.16 CI 9108652
Follow Ups:
● Aftershock Probabilities - Petra 09:04:14 - 8/29/2004 (22660) (0)
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