Hello Candlestick,

You will have to pardon me in being unfamiliar with your forecasting methods. The predictions you have given are rather alarming in nature and not so long ago someone reminded me that though these predictions are usually given by amateurs the affect they have on some individuals can prove to be a little more than we anticipate. For me personally it just says get ready, for others, it may be something entirely different. In the 1980's a minister in southern CA told his congregation that he was certain a very large earthquake was coming. He moved to another state and most of his congregation did also, but the quake never arrived. I so often wonder how all of them fared out in their new location.

So if you would be so kind, would it be possible for you to outline your hypotheses as to why you feel these large earthquakes may be coming to pass. Is it intuition, sensitivity, a scientific procedure, a theory of some nature or just a general observation from what activity is occurring now? Someone I know personally delivered a perfect forecast for a large earthquake and upon hitting it he was elated and then when he heard the news reports of the death toll it was rather sobering. I would like in some respects for you to be correct in that it would show something is working and yet on the opposite side of the coin if they come to pass the damage and possible deaths would indeed be tragic. The doubled edged sword for certain.

The north coast has frequently had the same kind of activity it has today without a resulting large earthquake. Even so, one of the greatest quakes up there was off shore and there was no damage at all. As for Coso/Ridgecrest I recall last year it had a swarm of 22 earthquakes, much like today and nothing happened. However, you could be perfectly correct in your assessment of both area's. So, if you could share your methodology, it would be very much appreciated.

I just took a moment to reflect upon the thought about what I would do if someone forecast a 7.0 on the Rodgers Creek Fault which is 3 miles due east of my location. I wondered what I might do differently that perhaps I don't usually do. I think I would take my artwork down from the walls, secure my bookcase to the wall and take down any collectibles, but foremost check my earthquake kit and make sure I had a good supply of water, food and paper products and batteries for all of my flashlights. Preparedness at all times I'm sure you will agree, is foremost.

Thank You....Pat