Progress report
Posted by EQF on March 09, 2004 at 08:52:37:

Here are a few specifics regarding what is being done with this new forecasting program. I could not do this type of work with my older programs because the languages being used were not anywhere near powerful enough.

Data such as sun and moon locations for warning signals are compared with similar data for past earthquakes. And when there is a match it indicates that an earthquake could be about to occur near where that past earthquake occurred. This procedure can produce amazingly accurate results at times.

As the warning signals that I detect appear to me to be highly selective for earthquakes which occur near populated areas it would make sense to first run those comparisons with earthquakes which occurred in the past which were destructive. I could not do that before because of program limitations. But with this new program what I am doing is adding information to my database which shows how much damage a given earthquake caused. That information is being slowly extracted from the lists of significant earthquakes which can be found at one of the U.S. government Web sites. So a match between a warning signal and an earthquake which claimed 10,000 lives would look more important to me than one with an earthquake which simply shook some trees and got people living in the area upset.

Unfortunately it is taking about an hour to process each year of significant earthquake data. And I am looking at 15 years of data. What I am checking for is information pertaining to if the earthquake was felt by large numbers of people, how many buildings were damaged, how many injuries there were, and how many people died. Each of those numbers goes into a different database column for consideration. And as the data processing program is getting more sophisticated it is enabling me to tell it which factor to give priority to when it looks at a warning signal. So it can or it will soon be able to selectively compare warning signals with earthquake factors such as magnitude, latitude and longitude, number of buildings damaged, sun or moon gravitational strength, ocean and Solid Earth Tide crest and trough locations, and perhaps eventually fault zone acceleration information.

Because I have records of warning signals going back years in time I can compare them with past destructive earthquakes and hopefully learn what the most important factors are for determining where an expected earthquake is going to occur when a signal is detected.

At the moment I am focusing on getting this program organized for my own warning signals. But as the data evaluation computer programs can now be easily transferred to other researchers the longer range goal is to have other people use those procedures to evaluate their own data such as Ear Tones and also to use them to compare earthquakes with aftershocks etc. and in the process learn more about how earthquakes are being triggered.


Follow Ups:
     ● Getting close !!! - EQF  05:48:27 - 3/15/2004  (21363)  (0)