Hi,

You said: "If it looks like an especially important earthquake, instead of trusting my location data which might be accurate only 50% of the time on the average, I will try to contact as many governments as possible and tell them to check for warning signs.

Such an approach can be successful some of the time.

Regarding posting forecasts here, the object is to save lives. And there are two ways to do that. You can forecast an earthquake and get people evacuated from cities etc. And you can alert disaster response groups so that they can more rapidly respond to the earthquake. That can save at least a few lives."

I am not at all sure what you expect foreign government/countries to do with the information you supply. You said you think your average is only 50%, so that means you are right half of the time and wrong half of the time. So you expect people to make decisions on something that doesn't weigh in better than half of the time.

You previously said you sent a message to one government telling them to look for signs of earthquakes by checking foundations of homes and if not found there, to look elsewhere. Normally one does not have damage to a foundation until after an earthquake unless they have some kind of soil problem, not related to earthquakes, so this leaves me puzzled.

So we have to ask, what should they do with your information:

A. Check seismo data devices?
B. Evacuate a city because EQF says the big one is coming, but has no data to support that theory. Possibly causing loss of life during the evacuation,loss of revenue for an unspecificied period of time and looting of homes during the absense of their owners.
C. Alert emergency personnel and spend $100,000 for a false alarm.
D. Ask EQF, What should we do?

I think it may be time to go back to the drawing board and first of all come up with a theory that is going to prove itself through testing and have it work no less than 80% of the time. Then if it gets that far, paper it and if anyone is interested they will read it and perhaps think about it.

You know GeoForecaster issues global earthquake predictions and they don't tell foreign governments to watch out for earthquakes. They make the information available to anyone who wants it. He's been in science for many years and is credentialed, so perhaps we should leave it to the experts? Or do you not trust them?

Of course the other avenue in creating some interest in your work would be to have a new web site and post your predictions there and circulate the web site information to the governments and let them check on your progress. You can call your own hits and post the results. Shan does it, so maybe its a good thing?

I just can't imagine what you expect these government people to do without giving them something fairly substantial to urge them to act. Did I miss something?

Let me know...Petra