Hi All. A statement was made not to long ago about Japan quake prediction.

“As pointed out in another note, a recent news story about forecasting efforts in Japan was encouraging. They were using words such as “advisory” and “prediction.” And that indicated to me that they were finally admitting that they have probably known all along that it should be possible and probably is possible to forecast at least some earthquakes. That admission represents a major step forward.”

I was living in Japan at the time they first got started in developing programs that might help in predicting an earthquake. At the time they started they were concerned with the Kanto Plains area having another quake such as the one they had in 1929.

As the Japanese have been foremost in earthquake prediction research, let us examine their experience.

From 1962 onwards, Japanese scientists were pressing the government to allocate funds for prediction-related research. The suggestion was finally accepted in 1965, following the havoc caused by the Nigata earthquake of 1964. There were tilt meters in the Nigata area at the time of the earthquake. They knew something was building, but not the when.

The Nigata earthquake of June 16, 1964 had a magnitude of 7.5 and caused severe damage to many structures in Niigata. The destruction was observed to be largely limited to buildings that were founded on top of loose, saturated soil deposits. Even though about 2000 houses were totally destroyed, only 28 lives were lost. A tsunami, triggered by movement of the sea floor associated with the fault rupture, totally destroyed the port of Nigata.

Around US$ 36 million were allocated till 1976, and for 1976 alone the amount was $8 million. About 70 seismograph stations, 20 crustal deformation observatories and 10 magnetometer stations were established. Excellent leveling surveys were repeated once in every five years to monitor regional sinking or upheaval of the ground. About 20,000 km distance was covered in each round.

In 1978, a law was passed to provide for adequate warning to be given in the event of a major earthquake so that emergency services could be put on full alert. An earthquake prediction council was formed to issue such warnings. The nearest it got to do this job was in 1983, when a foreshock was held as a pointer to a subsequent main event of magnitude of 7.7 within the sea of Japan. The only snag was that the two events occurred 12 days apart. The Japan Research Institute concluded that had the emergency measures been introduced for 12 days running -- trains stopped, banks, post-offices, and departmental stores closed, the costs would have amounted to more than 700 billion yen a day -- ie, more than the cost of the damage!

Despite all the money that has been spent in Japan for the purpose of predicting an earthquake they have yet to make one prediction. Successful or other wise. The goal at the time was to be able to make a prediction two days prior to the quake and be inside 100Km of the epicenter. At present time I don’t know if that is still the goal.

The area of chief concern now is the Tokai area. As a matter of fact the quake has already been named. However the Kanto Plains area is now being looked at as the activity in the area has gone quiet.

There is some talk in Japan now that earthquake prediction research should be abandoned and the resources diverted to designing quake-resistant buildings and planning better disaster management strategies. Take Care…Don in creepy town

• Japan Earthquake Prediction