Farther down on this bulletin board there is a discussion of a possible earthquake in India. In response to that discussion I checked my warning signal and earthquake data and circulated a report stating that my data indicated that some of my warning signals matched the following earthquake:

2001/02/08 16:54:40 23.63N 70.28E 10.0 4.9M GUJARAT, INDIA
(NEIS data)

I was expecting that another might occur in that area and that it would at least be strongly felt. The Wave Chart included with that note showed that the first high probability date was August 5.

The following strongly felt earthquake has now occurred:

2003/08/05 11:08:02 23.68N 70.53E 10.0 5.0 SOUTHERN INDIA

Both the location and date are essentially perfect matches for my forecast making this one probably one of the most accurate I have ever circulated. I thought that it might cause a little more damage than it did.

Normally when warning signals are detected I have to compare them with a very large number of earthquakes which have occurred around the world over the years. And that takes so long that I have to use special computer programs to do the data comparisons. If someone requests information on a specific area even as large as India it is much easier to check the data. And the results can be quite impressive as I believe this forecast was.

This was not the first time that I have been able to generate a high accuracy earthquake forecast like that when someone contacted me requesting information regarding a possible earthquake in a specific area.

For this type of application I believe that the Wave Chart technology can be valuable as it stands. And efforts are underway to improve its usefulness for other types of forecasts. Version #3 of the program is already up and running and is being evaluated by my earthquake research contacts.

Several people who post notes here should have seen copies of that forecast. If any of them wish to acknowledge that they did see it then that is ok with me.