Roger, I suspect that you may be missing the point of this exercise.

Some scientists have been saying for years that there is no evidence that earthquake occurrence times are anything but random events. In other words, they are not being triggered by the tides etc. However, my data and some other people’s data are showing that they are often triggered events. And one of the problems has been the fact that some scientists have been looking at the wrong types of data all these years.

Earthquakes are often being triggered by forces linked with the positions of the sun and the moon in the sky. And the logical assumption would be that the sun and moon gravity must be involved. What I am attempting to do in part is tell other scientist what is taking place here, starting at the beginning.

There are a number of different approaches which can be used to do this type of work. That group that I mentioned in eastern Europe is I believe looking at fault zone strain and then pointing to the sun and moon as the triggering factors. What I myself am doing is looking directly at sun and moon positions and linking them with earthquake triggering.

I am fairly certain that this type of research is going to have a major role in the future of earthquake science. And if you would like to add something to the discussion then you might check your probability tables and try to answer the following question. I looked at it and ran out of time. John gave it a try and came up with the number 3 out of 1000. You might see if you agree with him.

What is the probability that if 17 earthquakes are examined, 10 will have occurred when the moon longitude is in a range which is just 20% of its total possible range?

Here is another way to word the question. And anyone can try to answer it if they wish.

You have 17 dice. Each has 5 sides instead of 6. All 17 are thrown on the table at one time.

What are the chances that 10 of the 17 will land with the same number facing down?

There are two forms of that question. The most restrictive one has to do with the probability that a particular number such as “1” will be facing down. The other is that any of the 5 possible numbers will be the one which is facing down.

Finally, if my link for that GIF file does not work with your browser then try manually typing the address into the browser address window.

These are personal opinions.