Something that I have stated repeatedly in the past is the fact that the notes that I post here should be regarded largely as progress reports. They are intended to let people know where things stand regarding my own efforts. There are no groups that I know of which are interested in keeping track of people’s forecasting efforts. If you are doing that type of work then you have to provide people with updates yourself.

Something else that I have stated is that with regard to my own forecasts I feel that it is largely the responsibility of government officials to evaluate and act on them. I usually do not post forecasts to public Web sites etc. However, I do circulate some forecast data by e-mail. And if people are interested in those types of data then they can try contacting me through one of my Web sites. A number of people who post notes here are occasionally sent those types of data.

One reason that I do not make a stronger effort to circulate forecasts to people by e-mail is the fact that as I pointed out, I still need to answer at least one crucially important question regarding my precursor data. It is strongly affecting my confidence level in my forecasts. I need to determine if individual signals in groups of signals detected before some earthquakes are being generated in the same fault zone, fault zones at different locations, both, or neither. I have been trying to determine the answer to that question for years. It is central to how I evaluate my data. And I believe I am getting closer to the answer. But it is still something of a mystery.

Regarding forecasts circulated in public, on two previous occasions I activated my “Seismic Activity and Storm Data” Web pages which list the actual precursor data with which I am working.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/131.html
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/132.html

The idea is to list the precursor data there and then let people propose where individual signals might be pointing. Computer and Internet connection related mechanical problems were partly responsible for my stopping listing data at those sites in the past. Those problems have now been largely solved. I have two other projects which need immediate attention. If and when they are settled I may try to reactivate those Web pages.

INDIA EARTHQUAKE

On September 13, 2002 an earthquake in an island group near India reportedly claimed several lives. My records show that a clear warning signal which was probably pointing to that earthquake was detected about 12 hours before it occurred. The signal was so weak that it did not attract my attention. I contacted India government officials and told them that I am presently watching for unusually powerful aftershocks. However I would be surprised if there are any.