2cents, I am afraid that you may be spinning your wheels on this matter. And the car does not look like it is going to be going anywhere in the near future.

As you can see, you are the only person who is commenting on these notes. Other people are probably not for the following reasons:

1. They aren’t interested and do not want to spend any time on it.

2. They are already on one of my e-mail lists. And they get to see a certain amount of my forecasting information at the time that it is circulated. I will also point out that I do not have any formal e-mail lists like that at this time. When my reports get circulated I sometimes simply add some extra addresses in the BCC area.

I believe that most Internet servers allow you to have multiple e-mail addresses. Why not create such an address for yourself and send it to me? That will then get you on one of my lists and perhaps you will be content. If you do not like the information that I circulate then you can simply cancel that address. Or, you can try telling Canie that you want that information. And I will ask her to connect you with some other person who can forward my forecast information to you. Then I myself will not have any e-mail addresses for you (which is presently the case). That forwarding process is already being done for at least one person.

THE POLITICS OF FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES

If you wish to forecast earthquakes and save some lives then when you begin doing that you will discover that the process is far more complex than you might imagine. For one thing, there are no groups out there interested in circulating your forecast data to government officials around the world who might need to see it. And so you have to do that on your own. I myself have lists of hundreds of contact addresses for government officials around the world. And those lists are constantly growing.

The next thing you will discover is that those people will probably talk with you only if they themselves feel that in doing that their careers are not going to be placed in jeopardy. In general, government officials can circulate forecast information among themselves without having problems develop. They get into trouble when a forecast gets out into the public sector. Then they can no longer discuss it quietly because they have to deal with news services etc.

At the very top of the earthquake advisories and warnings that I circulate is a statement which advises people not to circulate my forecast in public. And the obvious implication there is that if I am advising other people not to circulate it then I myself am not planning to do that. As a result I believe that they usually feel comfortable discussing the forecast with other people in their governments and to some extent with me. With a forecast I circulated not too long ago I am still having a somewhat active conversation with top officials in two different governments.

If I were to post my forecasts to any public locations such as this bulletin board then government officials in different countries would probably go on the defensive and refuse to talk with me in the future. And I believe that that might result in some lives being lost which might otherwise have been saved.

And finally on this, as I have said, at the moment, each person is responsible for letting other people know if he or she is having any success with his or her forecasts. No one else will do that for you. This bulletin board is a good resource for doing that. It is probably visited by quite a few people and is protected from outside interferences.

This is all part of the politics of forecasting earthquakes. If you want to save lives then you have to learn what the rules are. I will also state as I have in the past that my interpretation of those rules applies to my own forecasts. Other forecasters are on their own with regard to determining what those rules are.

These are my own opinions.