Re: Earthquake forecasting computer programs
Posted by EQF on May 30, 2002 at 13:09:37:

It has been my experience that as the complexity of the subject matter increases so do problems with getting messages across in a clear manner. And this subject matter is bewilderingly complex. Here are some clarifications:

*** Earthquakes are not a problem where I live. And a highly destructive one here in the U.S. would have no more impact on me than on anyone else. Efforts which anyone makes in response to my reports etc. will probably not benefit me but rather hopefully some of the 10,000 people who die on an average every year because of earthquakes.

*** My report was intended primarily for scientists who have a specific interest in relationships between the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon and the Earth’s crust. However, that does not mean that they are actually doing any research in that area. My report basically proposed to them that I thought that the link between those gravitational forces and earthquake triggering appears to be taking place through specific mechanisms when you are dealing with a certain, fairly short time frame. It did not discuss effects which may be important for longer time frames such as years or decades. Geomagnetic storm and air drag on continents type triggering effects were also not considered.

*** With regard to making grant money available to develop computer programs I have already stated that I am in the process of creating an organization which I am hoping will have some success in locating funds for that type of work. However, my background is in science and not business management. And I am not even a geologist. So all of these efforts are a considerable distance from my actual professional experience.

*** The computer program which I am proposing should be developed would have two parts. One would look at fault zone strain. The other part would simply compare precursor and earthquake data with one another. And I feel that there are already plenty of those types of data available. I could do the programming myself. But I cannot do that and at the same time forecast earthquakes, do research, and try to get that previously mentioned organization running.

*** I know who Dr. Berkland is and occasionally post a note to his bulletin board system. There are several links to his Web pages on my own Earthquake Forecasting Resources Web page. What I have not been able to determine is the nature of the data which he uses to forecast earthquakes. I believe that he may be looking at the times when the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon are maximized. But it also sounds to me like he takes ocean tides into account. The information on this at his Web site which I have seen so far has been too vague for me to decipher.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake forecasting computer programs - Roger Hunter  13:31:13 - 5/30/2002  (15892)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake forecasting computer programs - EQF  15:15:26 - 5/30/2002  (15894)  (0)