Hi Lowell,

You sure tickled the ivories this morning for me and I had a look through the archives of this board and sure enough, the China quake was a topic of discussion on October 27th initiated by you.

In some area's I have an almost photographic memory and usually it occurs when something strikes a chord, like humor, something scary and something quite novel. This China discussion was one I never forgot as it was the one and only time I ever heard of anyone sending a warning to a government and telling them if they didn't find something near the potential epicenter to look elsewhere. I never found out where elsewhere might have been.

So let us review the beginning of this discussion and for those who wish to read the full thread hop over to the archives and have a read:

EDG's China forecast - what do you think ?

Posted by Lowell on October 27, 2001 at 13:56:05:

EDG has suggested that a forecast he made to some Chinese may have saved lives
in the latest Yunnan earthquake. He has suggested this might be appropriate discussion
material for this board. So here is the text of his e-mail. I am sure he would be interested
in whatever comments any of you may have on this.

From EDG October 27, 2001

On Oct. 7 I sent a warning to China telling them to check for precursor
activity near here:

2001/04/12 10:47:00 24.79N 98.94E 10.0 5.4
MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION

(NEIS data)

On Oct 16 I sent them another warning and said to check again near here:

2001/06/07 18:03:31 24.82N 99.18E 33.0 4.8
YUNNAN, CHINA

The following earthquake just occurred:

27Oct2001 05:35:42.0 26.1N 100.7E 33 MS=5.4
YUNNAN, CHINA (Red Puma data)

According to the first reports I have seen, 1 dead, 130 injured, more than
1500 buildings collapsed. Considering the amount of damage that low
fatality figure suggests to me that they might have known it was coming.

For location that was probably one of my most accurate forecasts. But as I
have said, it does little good to predict an earthquake if no one knows
about your forecast. In this case I was able to get the forecast to the
right people (I believe) in plenty of time. Perhaps that is part of the
reason the fatality count was so low.

Last Spring "Xinhua" said that fatalities for a recent destructive quake in
China were low in part because of a timely forecast. It is possible that
they were referring to the one that I sent them about 8 hours before it
occurred. This latest one may have been the first time I was actually able
to provide them with an accurate location. Most previous forecasts just
said to start watching for reports of precursor activity for a destructive
quake.

If time permits I am going to try to circulate a report on this.

Also, my precursor data indicate that one or two more destructive quakes
are probably on the way. The latest one looks like Nov. 3, give or take a
few days. The data are such that I cannot offer any suggestions for where
that one might occur.

My China forecast can be discussed in the EarthWaves board if you wish.

The complete text of those messages EDG refers to are:

"Date: October 7, 2001

China earthquake forecasters, I recommend that you check to see if
any precursor observations are being made in the area where the
following earthquake occurred. A few earthquake warning type
signals which I detected yesterday matched that earthquake. It
could also occur somewhere else. So far it does not look like it
will be very destructive.

2001/04/12 10:47:00 24.79N 98.94E 10.0 5.4
MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION
(NEIS data)

This information represents expressions of personal opinion."

I did not receive a copy of the second text and cannot verify that a second warning
was issured.

The only prediction I got from EDG on October 16 was for Greece.

So, what do you think - is this a "good" or "useful" prediction. If it got to the
"right" people, do you think it would have saved lives?