Boy, Don, you just squeezed under the wire on the Parkfield forecast. But it looks like your trip
There with Petra may have delayed the earthquake - we all know earthquakes don't happen when
Petra is around - good thing you came back or you would have missed this one.

NCSN is reporting the following earthquake at Parkfield tonight:

Event:

http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html

O: 06MAR2002 19:09:34 36.0N 120.5W MD=2.5Md NW of Parkfield, CA

Don's Forecast:

F: 04 MAR2002 +/- 2 days 35.9N 120.5W Ml 3.0-4.0 Parkfield, California (35 km radius)

Since the event occurred less than 15 km from your forecast epicenter it falls within the distance
Bounds and right at the end of the time window, but it looks like you overestimated the magnitude
Slightly. A Ml 2.5 at Parkfield is somewhat unusual, however, so overall this seems to be a
Pretty good forecast.

Don's Original forecast:

Parkfield, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on February 25, 2002 at 21:22:57:

Magnitude: 3.0-4.0Ml
From: 03/02/2002UTC - To: 03/06/2002UTC
Location: Parkfield, California
Lat: 35.9N - Long: 120.5W - Range: 35KM

Hi All. It seems I may have gone to Parkfield a little early. Looking for a 3.0 to 4.0 quake at 35.9N/120.5W. This is about 6Km west of Parkfield. Should occur on 03/04/2002. The window
will open on 03/02/2002 and will close on 03/06/2002. The radius on this will be 35Km.
Take Care…Don in creepy town

• Earthquakes in California/Nevada