While we're at it, there was a Ml 3.3 near Burney, California
this afternoon that may have broken the temporary California seismic
quiet. The event was followed by a Ml 2.3 aftershock.
Don had a Burney forecast which he had made on October 24
(Post # 10320 in archives).

NCSN is giving today's quake the following parameters:

O 07NOV2001 11:39:01 40.8N 121.6W ML=3.3 NCSN 5 km ESE of Burney, CA

Don had expected an event within 40 km of 40.7N 121.7W with magnitude
between 2.4-4.1 between Oct 30 and Nov 3. This event is correct in
position (about 15-20 km away from the predicted epicenter) and magnitude
in the middle of the predicted magnitude range but off by 4 days in timing.

Since October, 1997, 30 5-day periods have contained an earthquake
which would have been considered a "success", so chances of success
were about 1 in 10. However the actual event occurred 9 days after
the start of the forecast period. In the past 4 years 26 9-day periods
have contained a successful event. So the probability of a successful
event within 9 days is about 0.16 or odds of 1 in 6. Still, not bad,
you did beat the odds again. By the way, there have been 15 earthquakes
of Ml>=3 in Don's given radius in the 30 years since 1971, an average
of about 1 every two years, so this is a fairly rare event.
Additional information is also useful in evaluating a prediction. In this case,
Don had added that a geomagnetic storm may be needed to trigger this
earthquake. As most are now aware, a very strong geomagnetic storm
occurred yesterday, so this additional piece of information could be very
useful in a comprehensive evaluation.
The law of compound probabilities is certainly suggesting you are onto
something, Don. Keep up the good work - we are watching.

Don's Burney forecast had read:

Burney, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on October 24, 2001 at 22:57:41:

Magnitude: 2.4-4.1
From: 10/30/2001PDT - To: 11/03/2001PDT
Location: Burney, California
Lat: 40.7N - Long: 121.7W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. I'm feeling my oats tonight.

Looking for a quake in the range of 2.4 to 4.1Ml at 40.7N/121.7W on
11/01/2001. This is about 15Km SSW of Burney, California. The radius on this
is 40Km. The window opens on 10/30/2001 and will close on 11/03/2001.

Tonight's popcorn quake drew my attention to that area. The problem is that
I don't know if this quake was brought about by the recent geomagnetic storm,
or if this is stress related, or a combination of both. Most likely both. The
problem with this is that it may take another geomagnetic storm to trigger it.
Lets just say that it will be sort of like the straw that broke the camels back.

This forecast is not to far from the swarm that occurred in Dec of 2000. Not
really looking for the same thing to occur again, but thought I would mention
it. Take Care...Don in creepy town

• California/Nevada earthquakes