Posted by Lowell on November 05, 2001 at 21:55:39:
Well, Don did it again!! The three earthquakes in the Coalinga area tonight occurred according to NCSN with the following parameters: O: 6NOV2001 4:38:36 36.2N 120.3W ML=2.7 NCSN NNE of Coalinga, CA O: 6NOV2001 3:54:51 36.2N 120.3W ML=2.4 NCSN NE of Coalinga, CA O: 6NOV2001 3:54:13 36.2N 120.3W ML=2.8 NCSN NNE of Coalinga, CA Don's third forecast (Post # 10623 posted on November 2, 2001) for Coalinga (the first two had grade "A" Quality) was for an event of Ml 2.1-3.3 with 40 km of 36.1N 120.2W between Nov. 6 and 10. Since these events occur within about 15 km of Don's predicted epicenter, are within the time window and magnitude range, once again it appears that Don get grade "A" on this forecast. I posted statistics for the area earlier which indicate about one chance of five of having a success with such a prediction. Also, above, I posted information to the effect that these may have been directly related to CME which hit the earth within a minute or two of the time of these earthquakes. In view of the relation to the CME, I think it is especially noteworthy that Don mentioned in his forecast the possible increase in magnitude or early occurrence of the event in case of a geomagnetic storm. Once again, good going, Don. I wish I could do as well. Don's Complete forecast had read: Coalinga, California Earthquake Forecast Coalinga, California Earthquake Forecast Posted by Don In Hollister on November 02, 2001 at 14:42:36: Magnitude: 2.1 to 3.3 From: 11/06/2001PDT - To: 11/10/2001PDT Location: Coalinga, California Lat: 36.1N - Long: 120.2W - Range: 40Km Hi All. I'm looking for a 2.1 to 3.3 quake at 36.1N/120.2W. This is about 10Km SE of Coalinga, California. It should occur on 11/08/2001. The window opens on 11/06/2001 and will close on 11/10/2001. The radius on this will be 40Km. In the event of a geomagnetic storm one, or two days before the forecasted date the quake could occur early, or be 0.5 magnitude higher. In the past couple of years there has been an increase in quake activity in this area, which is about 39Km SE of the 1983 Coalinga 6.7 quake. Not sure if they are aftershocks, or quakes in there own right. Take Care.. Don in creepy town
Follow Ups:
● Re: Don's Coalinga prediction and tonight's Coalinga earthquakes - Cathryn 23:06:27 - 11/5/2001 (10735) (0)
● Re: Don's Coalinga prediction and tonight's Coalinga earthquakes - Don In Hollister 22:32:11 - 11/5/2001 (10732) (1)
● Re: Don's Coalinga prediction and tonight's Coalinga earthquakes - Lowell 01:26:53 - 11/6/2001 (10737) (1)
● Re: Don's Coalinga prediction and tonight's Coalinga earthquakes - Don In Hollister 01:42:23 - 11/6/2001 (10739) (1)
● Re: Don's Coalinga prediction and tonight's Coalinga earthquakes - Lowell 01:44:23 - 11/6/2001 (10740) (1)
● Re: Don's Coalinga prediction and tonight's Coalinga earthquakes - Don In Hollister 02:04:59 - 11/6/2001 (10741) (0)
● Re: Don's Coalinga prediction - The Kicker??? - Petra Challus 22:29:40 - 11/5/2001 (10731) (0)
|