Yes, Max is still around and kicking as hard as ever. You and other board members
might be interested in his latest project a description of which follows.

WAPMERR: A New Approach to World-Wide Earthquake Risk Reduction

The World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction
(WAPMERR) was created in a founding conference attended by
approximately 60 scientists, engineers, functionaries, and diplomats
in May this year. The purpose of this nonprofit organization,
headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, is to reduce natural and
anthropogenic risks. The charter, membership of the steering
committee, and other information about the agency can be found at
http://www.wapmerr.org.

Any person or organization may become a member of the General Assembly
by filling out the application form on the web page. Under the
guidance of its director, Max Wyss, a seismologist, WAPMERR will at
first focus on projects testing hypotheses on earthquake prediction,
evaluating regional and local seismic hazards, and estimating the
number of casualties that may result from future earthquakes and
volcanic eruptions.

These latter calculations can be completed immediately after a
potentially disastrous earthquake, or they can be based on scenarios
of earthquakes likely to occur near a population center. Such
of earthquakes likely to occur near a population center. Such
estimates can be obtained for any location on the planet, since the
WAPMERR database contains the size and seismic fragility of every
building in one million settlements. The computer program for these
calculations is operational, but its results continue to be tested
regionally using disastrous earthquakes of the past. Also, more
advanced models of the earthquake source and of attenuation laws are
being developed to increase the reliability of the estimates. In
addition to deterministic estimates, it is possible to calculate the
expected losses on the basis of probabilistic hazard maps.

Based on the same world-wide data set, WAPMERR is developing a method
to estimate the number of persons likely to be displaced in case of
volcanic eruptions similar to past eruptions, as estimated from mapped
ash layers.

Because earthquake prediction research is not conducted on a serious
or on a professional level in many countries, WAPMERR seeks to become
a focus of quantitative, high-quality investigations into physical
processes that may be associated with the initiation of earthquake
ruptures. A first target is to test the hypothesis that seismic
quiescence may not only follow major earthquakes, but that it may also
precede some.

WAPMERR has a branch office in Moscow and plans to open offices in
France and the United States. In most projects, WAPMERR wishes to
collaborate with research institutions and government agencies to
solve local and regional risk problems. Suggestions for projects that
could be developed in partnership are welcome. Because WAPMERR has no
base funding, its staff must find external support for research and
service activities.

WAPMERR is also planning to organize workshops and conferences to
focus the attention of the world-wide scientific community on problems
of current interest. In its collaboration with research institutions,
WAPMERR will host visiting scientists and students for short as well
as extended research visits. The WAPMERR staff understands that the
goals outlined in its charter are bold, and likely not all of them can
be reached. Nevertheless, much good may spring from its activities,
even if only a part of the plan can be realized.

Max Wyss