QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN - AT LEAST TEMPORARILY

SUMMARY

Other than aftershocks of the Kamchatka events of 8 October,
it was a quiet day on all fronts. Earthquake, hurricane and
geomagnetic conditions were all at low levels. SEC is expected
a major shockwave from a CME to arrive tonight or tomorrow.
This may shake things up a bit.

GLOBAL

Global seismicity has been relatively low since the last report.
Several aftershocks in the Kamchatka region were registered in the
MB4.5-5.5 range. The Kuril Islands earthquake which occurred last
night (UT) has been upgraded to a Mw 6.1 by NEIS from the Mb 5.9
they calculated last night. The most unusual earthquakes of the day
occurred in the eastern Gulf of Aden (Mb 4.8) and in the Central
mid-Atlantic ocean Ridge (Mb 4.8). The Atlantic event may have been
a volcanic reaction to the strong geomagnetic storms of last
week or a far-field aftershock of the Kamchatka events as the far field
forecast had cited the region:

"103-106 degrees***: .....Mid-Atlantic Ridge"

Other earthquakes of Mb>=4 were located in the Fiji Islands (Mb 4.7);
and in the Lake Baykal region (Mb 4.9) today. Some of these
were reported on in yesterday's report.

U.S./CANADA

The largest earthquake in the U.S./Canada region occurred in the
Ocotillo area south of California (Ml 3.4 (SCSN)) this morning. This area
has been active with 13 events in the Ml>=2.0 in the week since the end of
the geomagnetic storms on October 4. A Ml 2.7 near Calexico also occurred
in the same general area today.
Near Coalinga a Ml 2.6 was recorded. Earthquakes in this magnitude
range in this area occur about 2 times per month, so this is not a
rare event. Other events of Ml>=2 in the California/Nevada area included
quake near the Pinnacles CA (Ml 2.0); and Coso Junction (Ml 1.9).
No events of Ml>=3 were reported from Alaska or Hawaii and no
events of Ml>=2 were registered in other areas of the U.S. or Canada
today.

NEW ZEALAND

The on-line seismometer from IGNS was quiet today. No light or moderate
regional events were recorded since the last report. IGNS did
not issue any earthquake bulletins today either.
The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. No M- or
X- class flares were observed on the sun. No seismicity related
to geomagnetic effects is expected at this time.

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20010831events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Hurricane Iris did much damage upon landfall in Belize yesterday including
the probable deaths of 20 tourists on a dive boat. For news accounts
see:
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/hurricaneiris011009.html

There is currently no tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity
of North America. See:
http://hurricanes99.com/

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

October 11 is 24 days after the previous New Moon.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day
(With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 21 2.5 0.04
Antarctica MB>=4.0 343 2.8 0.02
India MB>=4.0 58 2.5 0.04
Yellowstone MB>=1.0 31 3.3 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No regions