Hi All. The quake I forecasted for the Novato area is a long shot. This is not to say it’s out of the realm of possibility, but it would be in an area that has not had any real indication of movement since 1600. The closest quakes I can find that have occurred within 5 miles of the forecasted location were on 09/19/1993. There were 3 of them and all were located at 38.12N/122.45W. The smallest was a 3.0Ml and the largest was 3.6Ml of which there were two. This location was taken from the NEIC catalog.

They are located about 3 miles west of the surface trace of the fault and the depth suggests they were more then likely near the bottom of the fault. The 3.0 was at 9Km and the two 3.6 were at 8Km. It should be noted that the Rohnert Park earthquake on 09/22/1999 was a 4.2Ml with a depth of 7Km. However this quake is now believed to have occurred on a thrust fault east of Rohnert Park and not the Rodgers Creek fault.

The stress is there; the trigger (s) will be there. Is it ready to break? I guess for right now I’m just going to lean back put my feet up and watch and see what happens. Take Care…Don in creepy town