Update on Don's latest forecasts

Before the board moved Don had some forecasts which had not yet
occurred. Here are some preliminary data in regard to these
forecasts. With better epicenters, things could change, however.

GREECE - Made to Chouliaras on Aug 23, 2001 (#9031)

O: 30Aug2001 21:28:27 37.9N 20.2E MB=4.5 NEIS IONIAN SEA
O: 02Sep2001 06:59:24 38.3N 20.3E MS=4.2 GSR GREECE
P: 26AUG2001 Aug 24 - Sep 1 38.4N 21.1E 3.5-4.5 Greece

O: 01Sep2001 23:59:01 (PDT) 36.9N 21.5E mb=5.4 SED SOUTHERN GREECE
O: 01Sep2001 23:59:24 (PDT) 38.3N 20.3E MS=4.2 GSR GREECE
P: 29AUG2001 Aug 24 - Sep 1 36.9N 21.7E 3.5-4.5 So. Greece

Both within 80 km.

These events occur at about 80 km and 66 km (or less than 20 km)
from the predicted epicenters within the range of magnitudes and
times. They are some of the largest earthquakes in Greece this
summer. Grade A to A-

SANTA ROSA/PETALUMA - Made Aug. 28, 2001 (#9139)

O: 01SEP2001 0:52:21 38.4N 122.6W ML=2.2 NCSN E of Santa Rosa, CA
P: 03SEP2001 (9-1to6) 38.3N 122.6W (40 km rad) Ml 2.5-4.0 G+

This event is within 10 km of the predicted epicenter. The
area within 20 km of this epicenter has seen 4 earthquakes of Ml>2.1
in the past 10 months - On Jan23, 2001 (Ml 2.3); June 27, 2001 (Ml 2.7)
and July 6, 2001 (Ml 3.7). The probability of guessing this epicenter
and magnitude range correctly is less than 0.05 in a 4-day period.
All factors correct except 0.3 magnitude units low. Grade A-

An earthquake of Ml 3.4 also occurred several days earlier north of
Petaluma:
The earthquake on 31 August south of the Geysers comes close to matching
Don's Petaluma forecast.

The quake occurred at:
ML 3.4 2001/08/31 01:25:00 38.7N 122.7W ESE of The Geysers, CA

This is about 45 km from the predicted site and a day early.

KALISPELL, MONTANA - Made Aug 23 (#9038)

O: 01SEP2001 04:38:11 47.9N 114.3W ML>2.0 MBMG Near Kalispell, MT
P: 29AUG2001 8-27 to 9-1 48.2N 114.5W Ml 2.9-4.0 Kalispell, MT

Within 40 km

This forecast is correct in all known details. The epicenter is less
than 40 km from the predicted epicenter. Grade A.

SANTA CLARITA - Made August 24, (#9080)

This earthquake has yet to occur. No evaluation at this time.