Dons prediction
Posted by G.Chouliaras on September 03, 2001 at 05:43:24:

Here is what Don wrote:
"Re: Greece and the New Zealand far-field aftershock forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on August 23, 2001 at 10:08:27:
In Reply to: Greece and the New Zealand far-field aftershock forecast posted by G.Chouliaras on August 23, 2001 at 09:26:26:

Hi Makis. This isn’t an earthquake forecast per say, but you should see a quake or two in these areas on or about 08/26/2001 and 08/29/2001. Magnitudes will be 3.5M to 4.5M.

Locations are 38.4S/21.1E. This location is in Southern Greece. This should be on the 26th. The second location is 36.9S/21.7E. This should be on the 29th. This is about 1 mile south of Pilos. Not knowing the area that good I will give this a radius of 80Km. I would look for the quakes starting on 08/24/2001 to 09/01/2001. Take Care...Don in creepy town"

Don's first prediction deals with the Ionian Sea subduction which has the highest seismicity rate in Eurasia (a magnitude 4 almost every week) and i found 2 of the largest events recorded by NOA around his coordinates (38.4S/21.1E) but not around the 26th as predicted

2001 AUG 30 21 28 26.8 37.75/20.03 Mlocal=4.4
2001 SEP 2 06 59 24.6 37.96/20.12 Mlocal=4.6

The Second prediction concerned Southern Greece (36.9S/21.7E) around the 29th and i found only one just last night on the 3rd (5 days overdue)
but with a smaller magnitude

2001 SEP 3 03 35 31.1 36.95/21.93 Mlocal=2.8

(The event lists of NOA at http://www.gein.noa.gr)

So it is hard for me to follow Lowels evaluation
since the second event he mentions has not been detected by the Greek seismic network :

"Posted by Lowell on September 02, 2001 at 17:45:03:
Update on Don's latest forecasts

Before the board moved Don had some forecasts which had not yet
occurred. Here are some preliminary data in regard to these
forecasts. With better epicenters, things could change, however.

GREECE - Made to Chouliaras on Aug 23, 2001 (#9031)

O: 30Aug2001 21:28:27 37.9N 20.2E MB=4.5 NEIS IONIAN SEA
O: 02Sep2001 06:59:24 38.3N 20.3E MS=4.2 GSR GREECE
P: 26AUG2001 Aug 24 - Sep 1 38.4N 21.1E 3.5-4.5 Greece

O: 01Sep2001 23:59:01 (PDT) 36.9N 21.5E mb=5.4 SED SOUTHERN GREECE
O: 01Sep2001 23:59:24 (PDT) 38.3N 20.3E MS=4.2 GSR GREECE
P: 29AUG2001 Aug 24 - Sep 1 36.9N 21.7E 3.5-4.5 So. Greece

Both within 80 km.

These events occur at about 80 km and 66 km (or less than 20 km)
from the predicted epicenters within the range of magnitudes and
times. They are some of the largest earthquakes in Greece this
summer. Grade A to A-"

I would also like to add that these are not "the largest earthquakes" of this summer when compared to the one on 26/7/2001 with M=6.5 (USGS). because earthquakes with magnitude around 4 occur every few days in Greece.
In any case Dons pfirst prediction concerning the Ionian Sea event is very impressive. Keep up the hard work and if i can be of any help i would be glad to assist.
Best wishes
Makis



Follow Ups:
     ● Data Sources - Lowell  13:16:27 - 9/3/2001  (9229)  (0)
     ● Re: Dons prediction - Don in Hollister  10:13:31 - 9/3/2001  (9224)  (1)
        ● Greek data - G.Chouliaras  11:22:13 - 9/3/2001  (9225)  (2)
           ● Re: Greek data - Petra Challus  12:16:15 - 9/3/2001  (9228)  (0)
           ● Re: Greek data - Don in Hollister  11:41:41 - 9/3/2001  (9226)  (0)