Re: Amit's total results
Posted by Roger Hunter on December 16, 2012 at 14:59:01:

Amit;

No, if you make predictions for different quakes I have to compute the probability of each quake separately. Then the score reflects the different odds and combines them into a single result.

The score uses the natural log of the probabilities. If you're interested, I can send you a write-up of the method, a bit too long to post here.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Amit's total results - Amit  18:17:08 - 12/16/2012  (80834)  (1)
        ● Re: Amit's total results - Roger Hunter  18:46:25 - 12/16/2012  (80835)  (1)
           ● Re: Amit's total results: CANCEL - Roger Hunter  19:13:44 - 12/16/2012  (80836)  (1)
              ● Re: Amit's total results: CANCEL - Skywise  19:23:26 - 12/16/2012  (80837)  (1)
                 ● Re: Amit's total results: CANCEL - Roger Hunter  21:45:11 - 12/16/2012  (80838)  (0)
     ● Re: Amit's total results - Skywise  15:55:04 - 12/16/2012  (80826)  (1)
        ● Rules for evaluation - Roger Hunter  16:08:31 - 12/16/2012  (80827)  (0)