Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion
Posted by Amit on December 15, 2012 at 09:44:24:

Roger
here is one sample of my 2011 year predictions till October 2011 only.This is just less than one year results( and 5 hits that to 7 quakes)while you say only 10 hits from 2006 till 2012

Here are the actual quakes (7+) as against predicted dates for the year 2011 ,till October 2011

1) January

Prediction date -------------actual dates and quake

4th------------------2nd at 2020Hrs UTC----7.2

2)April

8th-----------------7th at 1432 Hrs--7.1

3)July

9th------------------6th at 1903 Hrs---7.6

10th---------------7.0

4)August

22nd----------------20th at 1819 Hrs-----7.1

5)September

5th-------------------3rd at 2255 Hrs UTC---7.0

16th-----------------15th -----7.3

6)October

22/23rd-------------21st--------7.4

23rd--------7.2

Thus there are 9 Hits of 7+ quakes

If you do not consider little inaccurcy of 2/3 Hrs ,there are 5 dot hits (+ or - one day window and 7+)

There are 19 quakes of 7+ during January to October 2011(incluning clusters)

The average number of 7+ quakes per year are 15

thus odds are 15/120----120 because ,total days 360/ 3 day window period

ie 1/8 ie one in eight or 0.125

Now 9 hits out of 19 is 9/19 0.473

Even if we consider 5 hit out of 19 it comes to

5/19 ie 0.263

Both way it is above random date selection or average occurances(even after taking in to account cluster of quakes)

Amit


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Amit  10:04:20 - 12/15/2012  (80797)  (1)
        ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Roger Hunter  12:56:40 - 12/15/2012  (80801)  (1)
           ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Roger Hunter  19:12:08 - 12/15/2012  (80805)  (1)
              ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Amit  00:05:13 - 12/16/2012  (80806)  (1)
                 ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Amit  00:37:20 - 12/16/2012  (80807)  (1)
                    ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Amit  07:19:05 - 12/16/2012  (80808)  (1)
                       ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Roger Hunter  07:31:43 - 12/16/2012  (80809)  (1)
                          ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Amit  07:45:06 - 12/16/2012  (80810)  (1)
                             ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Roger Hunter  08:48:33 - 12/16/2012  (80815)  (1)
                                ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Amit  08:53:54 - 12/16/2012  (80816)  (1)
                                   ● Re: Island daughter and Amit-Roger discussion - Roger Hunter  09:03:46 - 12/16/2012  (80817)  (0)