Re: Earthquake prediction for December 2012
Posted by Roger Hunter on December 02, 2012 at 07:55:41:

Amit;

The evaluation is based on the prediction. If all 6 are correct you get 100% hits but the significance depends on the probability of success.

Getting a hit with a 90% chance of success has little value but a hit with zero probability gets maximum credit.

That can happen, too, because the probability is based on a limited sample.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake prediction for December 2012 - Amit  09:41:00 - 12/3/2012  (80693)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake prediction for December 2012 - Roger Hunter  10:56:59 - 12/3/2012  (80696)  (1)
           ● Amit is making sense here - Island Chris  06:18:42 - 12/14/2012  (80783)  (0)