OK, I just got up, the sun is not up yet, and my coffee has not taken effect of my central nervous system yet. But Amit is making sense here. I'll run it by HD (heartland daughter...or is it Island Daughter?) when she gets up. Also, at some point, with enough samples, doing just slightly better than chance as Roger evaluates Amit, becomes statistically significant at some level. 60 some predictions is not a tiny sample any more. But only 2 1/2 more than chance (if Roger is correct about what Amit says) does seem like a small amount and well within chance, but easy to calculate (but not by me).

Roger generally looks at predictions differently than I do, as we each posted in the last week or 2. Roger seems to be interested in whether a predicition is useful to get people out of buildings. I am also interested in the process of an earthquake nucleation, so if sun/moon or whatever Amit uses results in a significant result, then that is interesting and useful. More later.

Chris