I saw some written discussion about this, probably in letters to EOS (AGU), where certian of the seismologists were not careful enough about what they said: I can't remember exactly, but they may have said there was nothing to worry about from what turned out to be foreshocks. OK, maybe the did not actually say "there is nothing to worry about", they would have said it in Italian. So, the idea is that you really have to be careful what you say if you are in a position of responsibility. Gee, maybe that is why I am "heartland chris". Protected me when I said there would not be a M9.6 in Virginia on Sept 7, and zero chance of a 9.6 (or 10) in next 1 million years in Virginia. Gee, if there is a small asteroid impact near Virginia in next 1 million years equivalent to M10, then maybe I will go on trial for manslaughter, except I will be dead anyway so probably don't care.

I've also posted after the Japan M9, that it was not possible to have a M9 in central or southern California (south of the Mendocino Triple Junction). But, the pre-19 million year old subduuction zone still exists beneath at least south-central California (the lower crust is interpreted as oceanic subducted crust...this includes my thesis area). Maybe I should have said that the chance of a M9 in Central or Southern California is vanishingly small over time scales of millenia.

Chris