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Strong EM Signal – August 31, 2011 |
Strong EM Signal – Posted by EQF on August 31, 2011 An especially strong EM Signal was detected at the following time: 2011/08/31 00:03:00 UTC Chart A on my Data.html Web page has been updated. The version below will change as newer ones are stored on that Web page. The following is the same chart with an EM Signal line added for that strong August 31 signal.There are strong line peaks on that chart at around 67 W and 73 W. And fault zones along those longitude lines might be good areas to watch for approaching strong seismic activity.EXPECTED LOCATIONS Possibly because of the way that my probability equations work, expected earthquakes occur at the locations of those line peaks only some of the time. The rest of the time they can (obviously) occur elsewhere. EXPECTED TIME WINDOWS When a strong EM Signal is detected like that, the expected earthquake has the best chance of occurring within the next 5 days. However, when only one signal is detected as just happened then the Time Window probability is not that good. If the earthquake does not occur within that 5 day Time Window it might occur at some multiple of 7 days after the signal was detected. On the other hand, when several strong EM Signals are detected within a few hours of one another that 5 day Time Window probability increases to perhaps 75%. EXPECTED MAGNITUDES When strong EM Signals are detected like that, the earthquake magnitude will probably be high enough that if it occurs near a heavily populated area it could cause some serious problems. And one of the main reasons for circulating these Earthquake Warnings and Advisories is to let other forecasters around the world know that, “Now would be a good time for you to check your local precursor data for possible signs of approaching seismic activity.” These are personal opinions. Follow Ups: ● UPDATE plus Vanuatu Earthquake – September 4, 2011 - EQF 23:12:37 - 9/3/2011 (79182) (0) ● UPDATE plus Argentina Earthquake – September 2, 2011 - EQF 19:32:25 - 9/2/2011 (79169) (1) ● URL correction - September 2, 2011 - EQF 19:35:28 - 9/2/2011 (79170) (1) ● so the score is? - John Vidale 09:49:38 - 9/3/2011 (79175) (0) |
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