The colored circles show when and where 6 and higher magnitude earthquakes occurred.

When line peaks start to appear at some longitude on the most recent Time Windows, earthquake forecasters around the world should check their data for fault zones along those longitudes to see if there might be an significant seismic activity approaching for those areas.

The line peaks look like they might have done a fairly good job of pointing to the approach of the following earthquakes. The fourth and fifth predictions will be discussed in the next sections.

2011/07/11 20:47:05 9.50N 122.21E 20 6.4 Philippines
2011/07/10 00:57:13 38.04N 143.28E 18 7.0 Japan Area
2011/07/06 19:03:17 29.31S 176.20W 20 7.6 Kermadec Islands Area
(NEIS Data)

A person does not need to be an earthquake forecaster to predict that there would be powerful aftershocks like that in the Japan area following that March 11, 2011 earthquake. But there would not be any reason to expect those earthquakes in the other areas.

The fact that those line peaks did appear around 142 E provide a type of proof that this forecasting method does work for some approaching earthquakes. Because of all of the aftershock activity from that March 11 earthquake it would be expected that EM Signals should be almost constantly pointing to that area. And if there were no line peaks on the charts around 142 E then that could be an indicator that the forecasting method might not be working.

One of the reasons (there are several of them) that line peaks will appear, disappear, and then reappear at some longitude has to do with the way the computer programs display the line peaks.

The strongest line peak for each Time Window is set to full scale for that window. And all of the other line peaks for that window then have the same amplification factor applied to them. As a consequence, a fault zone at some longitude might for a long period of time be constantly causing EM Signals to be generated before an earthquake. However, a different approaching earthquake that is generating even stronger EM Signals for a short time will cause the first earthquake’s line peaks to be so small that they can’t be seen on the chart. And it looks as if they have temporarily disappeared.

When my computer programs are used to process the data instead of just looking at Chart A, they have options that can expand those smaller line peaks so that they look like they actually should appear.

Costa Rica Earthquake

2011/07/12 20:11:09 10.76N 85.03W 62 5.6 Costa Rica

That earthquake is not displayed on Chart A because it has a magnitude lower than 6. And I have been waiting for Roger to develop the computer code needed to plot earthquakes marked “special” such as that one. (Roger, you are holding up the entire worlds of earthquake research and forecasting – humor intended.)

However, my data analyses of individual EM Signals indicate that one strong signal detected at the following time was an excellent match for that earthquake.

2011/07/12 01:13:00 UTC

EM Signals are presently being detected at a rate of perhaps 4 to 7 per day on the average. And with my present computer programs it would be impossible to try to determine where each signal might be pointing. Instead they usually just get averaged together for individual Time Windows.

The signals are apparently pointing to powerful earthquakes that are occurring around the world. However, signals strengths appear to be affected by distance. So they can be much stronger for earthquakes in the general U.S. area such as that Costa Rica earthquake.

Now that much of the computer programming work got done earlier this year and I finally have had time to take more detailed looks at EM Signal and earthquake data matches it appears to me that this approach to forecasting earthquakes can really work quite well. And if it were used by forecasters around the world with their local EM Signal data then our governments could probably detect the approach of most of our powerful and significant earthquakes using just his single forecasting method.

A “NO EARTHQUAKE” FORECAST

Recently I was sent some forecast data for a possible earthquake in the Haiti area and asked for an opinion. The earthquake was supposed to occur by July 12, 2011. The data were reportedly originally generated by an earthquake research group that stores prediction data on the following Web site.

http://www.mitp.ru/en/predictions.html

It remains to be seen what is actually responsible for those 70 W to 75 W longitude line peaks. There might be some strong seismic activity headed for that area at some future date.