Kermadec far-field aftershock forecast - update
Posted by Lowell on June 08, 2001 at 18:56:16:

In a post from June 3, 2001, it was suggested that the following
areas ought to show increased seismic activity following the
Mw 7.2 in the Kermadec Islands on June 3.
We are now half-way through this period of expected activity
and an update on what has occurred might be interesting at
this time.
To summarize, NEIC has listed 48 events in the world of Mb>=4.5
since the Kermadec Isl. earthquake. 36 (75%) of these have occurred in
the areas listed a primary or secondary areas of increased seismicity.
Of these, 32 (67%) have occurred in areas which were considered
primary locations of enhanced seismicity. Each primary area experienced
at least one earthquake of Ml>=4.5 in the 5 days since the Kermadec
event. 4 of 8 secondary localities have experienced a regionally
significant earthquake in this time period.
Was this a successful forecast? With 67% of global activity
occurring in the 6 stated primary regions over the past 5 days,
and at least one event in each locale, the forecast seems to have
met it's stated goal to identify areas where seismicity should
be strong during this period.

The post stated:

"In general, areas which appear to consistently have moderate to
strong earthquakes in the 10 days following Ms 7+ earthquakes in
this area of the Kermadecs are:
Fiji/Tonga about 20 S.
Honshu - off East Coast between 32 and 37N
Central/No Atlantic Ridge
Guatemala/Mexico
Santa Cruz Isl. 11S 165E
Kuril Islands
New Britain/Solomon Isl"

Taking these one at a time shows the events that have occurred:

Aftershock in Kermadec Islands:

07Jun2001 05:06:29.3 33.6S 179.4E 33 MB=5.1 M NEI SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

1. Fiji/Tonga about 20 S.

07Jun2001 19:04:25.1 20.6S 179.4W500 MS=4.6 M NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION
07Jun2001 07:24:43.2 20.3S 177.5W500 MB=4.6 M NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION
06Jun2001 20:17:32.2 21.1S 177.4W 33 MB=4.6 M NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION
06Jun2001 17:17:07.2 20.0S 175.9W 33 MB=4.5 M NEI TONGA ISLANDS
06Jun2001 06:55:37.7 20.1S 174.0W 33 MB=4.6 M NEI TONGA ISLANDS
03Jun2001 22:20:16.4 25.1S 177.1W127 MB=4.9 M NEI SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
03Jun2001 21:18:17.4 24.6S 179.9W481 MB=4.5 M NEI SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

2. Honshu - off East Coast between 32 and 37N

06Jun2001 11:50:50.5 33.9N 137.3E300 Mj=4.5 M NIEDNR S. COAST HONSHU, JAPAN
08JUN2001 05:24 36.8N 141.4E 33 Mj=4.3 M NIEDE_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF, HONSHU
03JUN2001 02:33 35.0N 138.1E 40 Mj=4.3 M NIEDCENTRAL_SHIZUOKA_PREF, HONSHU

3. Central/No Atlantic Ridge

07Jun2001 09:16:19.7 0.9N 27.8W 10 MB=5.0 M NEI CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

4. Guatemala/Mexico

06Jun2001 19:27:42.7 12.1N 88.0W 33 MB=4.6 M NEI OFF COAST OF CEN AMERICA
04Jun2001 02:40:30.0 14.8N 92.2W 33 MB=4.5 M NEI NEAR COAST CHIAPAS, MEXICO

5. Santa Cruz Isl. 11S 165E

05Jun2001 21:46:55.1 15.4S 167.8E 33 MB=4.8 M NEI VANUATU ISLANDS
05Jun2001 16:16:55.5 14.4S 167.4E185 MB=4.6 M NEI VANUATU ISLANDS

6. Kuril Islands

05Jun2001 12:56:09.6 43.6N 147.3E 33 MB=4.5 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS
05Jun2001 01:45:34.1 45.4N 149.6E 55 MB=4.9 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS
04Jun2001 12:11:58.6 49.4N 155.5E 63 MB=4.6 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS
03Jun2001 08:20:26.6 43.5N 148.0E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS

7. New Britain P.N.G/Solomon Isl.

06Jun2001 21:39:29.9 6.9S 146.9E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
06Jun2001 18:04:17.2 7.0S 155.1E 10 MB=4.7 M NEI SOLOMON ISLANDS
05Jun2001 22:52:06.4 6.8S 146.4E 33 MB=4.9 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 22:01:31.2 6.9S 146.8E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 15:13:59.0 6.8S 146.4E 15 MB=5.8 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 13:38:01.9 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=4.8 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 13:12:00.9 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=4.9 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 12:34:54.2 6.9S 146.6E 10 MB=4.8 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 10:00:09.8 6.8S 146.5E 10 MB=5.0 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 09:49:31.0 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=5.3 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 09:49:20.6 6.9S 146.5E 10 MB=4.7 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 09:22:32.1 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=5.2 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 09:00:04.8 6.9S 146.6E 10 MS=6.2 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.


"Areas which have had several occurrences of unusual earthquakes
following such events include:
Texas
Tennessee
Central and No. California and off Coast of California
Romania
Greece
So. Sandwich Islands
Lake Tanganyika
Loyalty Islands"

2. Tennessee:

03Jun2001 22:36:45.9 42.0N 80.8W 5 LG=3.0 M NEI OHIO
Largest earthquake in NE US since January, 2001.

3. Off Coast California

07Jun2001 23:38:13.0 40.7N 124.6W 13 ML=3.6 M NEI NEAR COAST OF N CALIF.
Largest earthquake western U.S. since May 26, 2001.

5. Greece

06Jun2001 14:00:40.5 36.1N 22.3E 10 MB=4.7 M NEI SOUTHERN GREECE
Largest earthquake in southern Greece since May, 2000

6. So. Sandwich Islands

08Jun2001 15:08:41.6 57.8S 25.4W 33 MB=4.8 M NEI SOUTH SANDWICH ISL REGION

NEIC Events outside listed areas (Mb>=4.5)

08Jun2001 15:07:04.5 11.0N 92.4E 33 MB=4.9 M NEI ANDAMAN ISL, INDIA REGION
07Jun2001 18:03:31.8 24.8N 99.2E 33 MB=4.8 M NEI YUNNAN, CHINA
07Jun2001 07:35:07.2 51.2N 178.9W 33 MB=4.5 M NEI ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN
07Jun2001 07:03:12.9 51.3N 179.0W 33 MB=4.9 M NEI ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN
05Jun2001 20:04:45.2 29.1N 128.8E169 MB=4.7 M NEI NW OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
05Jun2001 15:33:27.1 42.5N 48.7E 33 MB=5.3 M NEI CASPIAN SEA
04Jun2001 22:41:02.2 17.1N 146.0E 82 MW=5.8 M NEI MARIANA ISLANDS
04Jun2001 11:56:28.9 31.2N 98.7E 33 MB=4.5 M NEI XIZANG
04Jun2001 13:00:57.2 1.5N 127.2E119 MB=5.2 M NEI HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
04Jun2001 08:04:02.6 6.0S 105.2E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
04Jun2001 02:58:43.7 6.9S 124.9E558 MB=5.3 M NEI BANDA SEA
03Jun2001 23:48:19.9 0.5N 122.7E 98 MB=5.0 M NEI MINAHASSA PEN, SULAWESI

For link to NEIC data see link to World Quakes at top of this page.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Kermadec far-field aftershock forecast - update - Petra Challus  04:31:25 - 6/9/2001  (7894)  (1)
        ● Re: Kermadec far-field aftershock forecast - update - Canie  09:01:20 - 6/9/2001  (7895)  (1)
           ● Re: Kermadec far-field aftershock forecast - update - Petra Challus  22:17:19 - 6/9/2001  (7904)  (0)