Re: Kermadec far-field aftershock forecast - update
Posted by Petra Challus on June 09, 2001 at 04:31:25:

Hi Lowell,

The results are very impressive, to say the least. Though in looking at the lists of quakes around the world I find concern in that California itself remains absent of quakes in the high four's or five's. It really is to quiet here and has been for far to long. I think it's odd indeed when most people think of California as a place that has lots of quakes to be in this condition.

I see the Seattle/Vancouver regions remain unsettled and in that my general sense of things tells me not to expect just these micro quakes, but other larger ones as well. As I know little about subduction quakes, I have asked Don to seek out information about prior subduction events to see what kind of activity has followed a large event. I want to know if the kind of activity the NW is experiencing is "normal."

In the minds eye what I see would be like a sandwich with one slice of the bread hanging over the other and inside would be olives. The olives keep moving around, rather than being pushed down and held in place with the weight of the bread on top.

Though in this past week there were a lot of small quakes up there, the one's that have caught my attention are those that run up from Shelton to Whidbey Island and over to Vancouver Island. These are the places that had immediate aftershocks after the Feb quake, with the exception of the Vancouver Is quake. Therefore, to me at least, it seems more likely than not that the area will at some point experience larger quakes up to the 6.7 range and perhaps even larger within a year, but I would expect it closer now than later.

Just observations....Petra


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Kermadec far-field aftershock forecast - update - Canie  09:01:20 - 6/9/2001  (7895)  (1)
        ● Re: Kermadec far-field aftershock forecast - update - Petra Challus  22:17:19 - 6/9/2001  (7904)  (0)