Challis Idaho earthquake/prediction
Posted by Lowell on June 05, 2001 at 10:10:48:

Thought you and Petra might be interested in another earthquake
near Challis Idaho on June 2, 2001. This was also a correct
hit for your prediction. The earthquake occurred at:
01/06/02 12:16:44 44.48N 114.29W 10.0 2.0 C near Challis, ID

Information from the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology (MBMG)
at web site:

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/mbmgsun.mtech.edu/name=quake/border=1

Unlike the previous event which was quite rare, however, this
event is not unusual. There have been 9 earthquakes this year (about 1
every 17 days) in the area including your prediction and the location
of this earthquake. This means in a random 5-day period your
prediction would have been right slightly less than 1 in 3 tries.

Challis, Idaho is located at 44.48N 114.25W so this earthquake
occurred less than 4 km from the town of Challis. This is the largest
earthquake within 10 km of Challis, ID since a Ml 2.3 on July 6, 1999,
so in the sense that you named the town of Challis (which was not
near the predicted epicenter) your prediction could really be considered
two predictions - one at the stated epicenter and a second at Challis, ID.
It is quite remarkable that unusual earthquakes occurred within your
magnitude and time frame for both predictions.


Your prediction was:
Posted by Don in Hollister on May 18, 2001 at 14:13:07:

Magnitude: 1.5M/3.5M
From: 05/28/2001 - To: 06/02/2001
Location: Challis, Idaho Area
Lat: 44.5N - Long: 113.4W - Range: 40K



Follow Ups:
     ● On Second thought - Lowell  10:30:11 - 6/5/2001  (7878)  (1)
        ● Re: On Second thought - Don in Hollister  13:29:26 - 6/5/2001  (7879)  (0)