Hi Lowell. It’s sort of along the lines of learning how to walk before I can run.

I don’t have any idea as to what my score is right at the moment for forecasting the small quakes in the out of the way places, but I do know what my record is for quakes above 6.0Md. It’s 2 for 5 although I didn’t post them. I hope by the end of the year I will be able to make at least one post for a major quake. By major I mean a quake 6.0Md or larger.

The thing I’m finding so far is that the magnitude of the quake is the hardest part to determine. The timing and location of the quake while not all that easy is easier then trying to determine the magnitude. The size of the quake depends upon the amount of stress at the time of the quake and when the quake occurs if it release all of the stress at that time, or if it’s a foreshock to a much larger quake down the road which can be anywhere from 1 day to six months or more.

It’s good to be able to see the number of correct forecast I’ve made, but my interest is in the ones I didn’t get. Finding the reason why is even harder then getting the magnitude. Take Care…Don