Hey! Hey!

Congratulations Shan!!!

A number of years ago one of our forecasting colleagues and I worked on a report that attempted to evaluate your forecasting method. A copy of the report is stored somewhere on your Web site. And it is starting to look like it was a well worthwhile effort!

There is a fair amount of additional information that is directly or indirectly related to your forecasting methods that I am aware of and you probably are not. I would say that some of the information provides evidence that your program has a solid physical mechanism behind it. And if other earthquake forecasters would do a better job of communicating I might be able to get permission to discuss that information with you.

In any case, that information is supposed to be formally published one of these days. That was actually scheduled for late last year. And I don’t know what is holding things up. There is that communications problems that forecasting researchers seem to have.

You should take another look at my charts such as the demo one below that displays some of your data along with mine and Amit Dave’s. You could probably be using my computer program to generate those types of charts yourself and perhaps make your forecast data easier to work with.

Ordinarily I would try to discuss doing that with you in more detail. But I presently have so many earthquake related projects and other types of projects underway I have to let other people take the initiative and contact me for information. At the moment I am a week or two behind with just talking with the people I am already in contact with.

Again,

Congratulation on your efforts. It is somewhat amazing to see a government actually acknowledge in writing that the science of earthquake forecasting exists. Now if they were really sharp they might try to actually use your method and see if it works for them. The price (free) is certainly right.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/images/2010_Research.png