Those data show that governments, independent researchers, and disaster mitigation personnel could be predicting them by watching for certain types of electromagnetic energy signals (earthquake precursors) that can be easily detected around the world.

Newsgroup Readers - Please forward copies of this report to earthquake researchers, university geology and physics departments, disaster mitigation groups, government agencies, and news services. This information is also being circulated by E-mail and surface mail.

This report has been posted to a physics Newsgroup because it discusses geophysical phenomena. And it was posted to an astronomy related Newsgroup because the technology being discussed is highly reliant on data associated with the locations of the sun and the moon in the sky.

The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion, observations, and scientific theory.

THE THREE CHART WEB PAGES

The Charts.html Web page listed above displays what are referred to as “Year Charts.” They are two dimensional records of EM Signal activity (longitude versus time) for the years 2001 through 2010.

The Charts-Interpret.html Web page discusses observations and theories related to the data on the Year Charts. It is the most important of the Web pages.

The Year_Charts.html Web page displays a large number of specially prepared charts that are intended mainly for earthquake researchers.

EM SIGNALS

The EM Signals being referred to are believed to a large extent to be earthquake fault zone activity related electromagnetic energy field signals that are presently being monitored primarily at one location in the United States. They can probably be detected anywhere on the planet and are likely affected by distance and other factors such as fault zone depth.

A variety of EM Signals are being monitored. They range in frequency from about 5 cycles per second up to around 8000 cycles per second. Many of the signals do not have a specific frequency but are detected as energy bursts, something like the sound that is heard on a radio when there is a bolt of lightning during a nearby thunderstorm. The time duration of the signals is usually in the 0.25 second to 20 second range. Some can last as long as 6 hours or more.

The detection method I myself am using is somewhat unusual. And there is not too much that is actually known regarding the nature of the EM Signals. They do not appear to be electric in nature like a standard radio wave. Conventional radio receivers seem to be unable to detect them. Instead they are believed to be associated with fluctuations in the Earth’s geomagnetic energy field as it exists in the atmosphere (rather than the ground.) Some of the signals can be easily generated and detected under laboratory conditions. A description of one type of signal detector that was developed by research personnel in the People’s Republic of China can be found at the above listed Web site.

It may be that the fault zones that are the sources of the EM Signals could be located by using signal monitors that have a directional capability. Triangulation might work. I myself do not have any detectors like that. So I am using a computer program that I have developed over the years in order to identify fault zone locations.

THE EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM

The Perl and Gnuplot languages based earthquake forecasting computer program uses an earthquake database that goes from the beginning of 1990 up to the present. For each of the more than 50,000 earthquakes in the database file there are 5 numbers that correspond to things such as the locations of the sun and the moon in the sky at the time that the earthquake occurred along with certain types of ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide data. The single most important number of those five is associated with the “Tide Generating Force.”

When EM Signals are detected their times are recorded. The five sun, moon, and tide crest and trough location type numbers are calculated for that time. And those numbers are compared with the same numbers in the earthquake database file. Fairly complex probability equations then identify the most likely locations for the fault zones responsible for the EM Signals.

This forecasting method works for some approaching earthquakes. But it is probably nowhere near as good as a triangulation based method would be. The reason that his report is being circulated at the present time has to do with some extraordinary data associated with this forecasting procedure that have become available in just the past few weeks.

EM SIGNALS AND THE MOST POWERFUL EARTHQUAKES

There has always been some question regarding exactly which earthquakes these EM Signals are associated with. And it appears that that question has now been answered.

Logic would suggest that if they are associated with earthquakes occurring around the world, then they would preferentially point to the most powerful ones. And the latest data indicate that this is in fact the case.

The 2001 through 2010 Year Charts use circles of different sizes and colors to show when 7 and higher magnitude earthquakes occurred. There is a single 9 magnitude earthquake on the charts that occurred in the Indonesia area on December 26, 2004. It spawned a tsunami (tidal wave) that reportedly claimed a quarter of a million lives. And there are about a dozen 8 magnitude earthquakes plus many more 7 magnitude ones. Some of the charts also use red triangles to indicate the times and locations of all of the earthquakes that I know of that produced fatalities.

The EM Signal data appear to be clearly pointing to the approach of the 8 and higher magnitude earthquakes as well as some of the 7 magnitude ones and even a few others such as the deadly 6.5 magnitude December 22, 2003 earthquake in California.

There are two easily observed indicators that the chart data are pointing to those powerful earthquakes.

First, the EM Signals are displayed as horizontal lines that have longitude as the X axis and time as the Y axis. The longitude where the computer program determines the fault zone responsible for a group of EM Signals is located is identified by line peaks. And with some of the most powerful earthquakes it can be easily seen that the precursor line peaks are at the approaching earthquakes’ longitudes.

The second indicator applies to a larger percentage of earthquakes. Researchers examining the Year Charts should pay particular attention to this indicator.

With it, the computer program is not necessarily correctly identifying an approaching earthquake’s true longitude. Instead, during the weeks and months before the earthquake and then during the weeks or months after it occurs there are easily observed line peak “Transitions.” That means that the line peaks appear at some longitude before the earthquake, remain there for a while, and then abruptly shift to some other longitude after it occurs.

Several of the best examples of that “Transition” indicator that are clearly visible on the Year Charts with the two 8 magnitude earthquakes that occurred in the Kuril Islands area in late 2006 and early 2007.

COMMENTS

A standalone exe version of my earthquake forecasting computer program written a few years ago is available through my Web sites as a freeware download. Some of the source code can also be found there. Efforts are in progress to make newer versions of the program available for free use by governments and earthquake researchers around the world. Computer programs written in any language can interact with the latest version to generate customized charts etc. There will also be some EM Signal data that can be used with the computer program for forecasting and research purposes.

One of the most difficult steps in forecasting earthquakes involves simply proving that reliable earthquake precursors do in fact exist. And the Year Charts are doing that by showing that there are links between these EM Signals and our most powerful earthquakes.